Alaska Outer Continental Shelf RegionOCS Study MMS 2008-035 FINAL TASK 4A.1 REPORT VOLUME I Alternative Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators and their Variability for the Beaufort Sea – Fault Tree Method

• Main Author: Mms Contract Number ---ct
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2008
• Subjects: Arctic; Beaufort Sea; Alaska
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.375.9465; http://www.arlis.org/docs/vol1/A/302283624.pdf

The opinion, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this report or product are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of the Interior, nor does mention of products constitute endorsement or recommendations for use by the Federal Government. i Beaufort Oil Spill Estimators Final Task 4A.1 Report – P2704.01 MMS Contract No.: 1435-01-05-CT-39348 Oil spill occurrence estimates were generated for high and low case estimated future oil and gas development scenarios (including exploration, production, and abandonment) in the Beaufort Sea Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease sale region. Because sufficient historical data on offshore oil spills for this region do not exist, an oil spill occurrence model based on fault tree methodology was developed and applied. Using the fault trees, base data from the Gulf of Mexico including the variability of the data, were modified and augmented to represent expected Arctic offshore oil spillage frequencies. Three principal spill occurrence indicators, as follows, were quantified for each year of each scenario, as well as scenario life of field averages: