Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics c○European Geophysical Society 2001 The role of soil states in medium-range weather predictability

• Main Authors: S. Fukutome, C. Prim, C. Schär
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2000
• Subjects: North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.371.2100; http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/30/20/49/PDF/npg-8-373-2001.pdf

Abstract. Current day operational ensemble weather prediction systems generally rely upon perturbed atmospheric initial states, thereby neglecting the eventual effect on the atmospheric evolution that uncertainties in initial soil temperature and moisture fields could bring about during the summer months. The purpose of this study is to examine the role of the soil states in medium-range weather predictability. A limited area weather prediction model is used with the atmosphere/land-surface system in coupled or uncoupled mode. It covers Europe and part of the north Atlantic, and is driven by prescribed sea-surface temperatures over the sea, and by atmospheric reanalyses at its lateral boundaries. A series of 3 member ensembles of summer simulations are used to assess the predictability of a reference simulation assumed to be perfect. In a first step, two ensembles