International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos © World Scientific Publishing Company PREDICTING CLIMATE TIPPING AS A NOISY BIFURCATION: A REVIEW
Please cite as IJBC (accepted, to appear in 2010) There is currently much interest in examining climatic tipping points, to see if it is feasible to predict them in advance. Using techniques from bifurcation theory, recent work looks for a slowing down of the intrinsic transient responses, which is...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.369.9465 2023-05-15T15:09:46+02:00 International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos © World Scientific Publishing Company PREDICTING CLIMATE TIPPING AS A NOISY BIFURCATION: A REVIEW J Michael T Thompson The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.369.9465 http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate change/Data sources/Thompson tipping points.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.369.9465 http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate change/Data sources/Thompson tipping points.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate change/Data sources/Thompson tipping points.pdf Climate tipping bifurcation prediction time series analysis text ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T01:13:31Z Please cite as IJBC (accepted, to appear in 2010) There is currently much interest in examining climatic tipping points, to see if it is feasible to predict them in advance. Using techniques from bifurcation theory, recent work looks for a slowing down of the intrinsic transient responses, which is predicted to occur before an instability is encountered. This is done, for example, by determining the short-term autocorrelation coefficient ARC(1) in a sliding window of the time series: this stability coefficient should increase to unity at tipping. Such studies have been made both on climatic computer models and on real paleoclimate data preceding ancient tipping events. The latter employ re-constituted time-series provided by ice cores, sediments, etc, and seek to establish whether the actual tipping could have been accurately predicted in advance. One such example is the end of the Younger Dryas event, about 11,500 years ago, when the Arctic warmed by 7 ◦ C in 50 years. A second gives an excellent prediction for the end of ’greenhouse ’ Earth about 34 million years ago when the climate tipped from a tropical state into an icehouse state, using data from tropical Pacific sediment cores. This prediction science is very young, but some encouraging results are already being obtained. Future analyses will clearly need to embrace both real data from improved monitoring instruments, and simulation data generated from increasingly sophisticated Text Arctic Unknown Arctic Pacific |
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Unknown |
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ftciteseerx |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate tipping bifurcation prediction time series analysis |
spellingShingle |
Climate tipping bifurcation prediction time series analysis J Michael T Thompson International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos © World Scientific Publishing Company PREDICTING CLIMATE TIPPING AS A NOISY BIFURCATION: A REVIEW |
topic_facet |
Climate tipping bifurcation prediction time series analysis |
description |
Please cite as IJBC (accepted, to appear in 2010) There is currently much interest in examining climatic tipping points, to see if it is feasible to predict them in advance. Using techniques from bifurcation theory, recent work looks for a slowing down of the intrinsic transient responses, which is predicted to occur before an instability is encountered. This is done, for example, by determining the short-term autocorrelation coefficient ARC(1) in a sliding window of the time series: this stability coefficient should increase to unity at tipping. Such studies have been made both on climatic computer models and on real paleoclimate data preceding ancient tipping events. The latter employ re-constituted time-series provided by ice cores, sediments, etc, and seek to establish whether the actual tipping could have been accurately predicted in advance. One such example is the end of the Younger Dryas event, about 11,500 years ago, when the Arctic warmed by 7 ◦ C in 50 years. A second gives an excellent prediction for the end of ’greenhouse ’ Earth about 34 million years ago when the climate tipped from a tropical state into an icehouse state, using data from tropical Pacific sediment cores. This prediction science is very young, but some encouraging results are already being obtained. Future analyses will clearly need to embrace both real data from improved monitoring instruments, and simulation data generated from increasingly sophisticated |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
J Michael T Thompson |
author_facet |
J Michael T Thompson |
author_sort |
J Michael |
title |
International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos © World Scientific Publishing Company PREDICTING CLIMATE TIPPING AS A NOISY BIFURCATION: A REVIEW |
title_short |
International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos © World Scientific Publishing Company PREDICTING CLIMATE TIPPING AS A NOISY BIFURCATION: A REVIEW |
title_full |
International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos © World Scientific Publishing Company PREDICTING CLIMATE TIPPING AS A NOISY BIFURCATION: A REVIEW |
title_fullStr |
International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos © World Scientific Publishing Company PREDICTING CLIMATE TIPPING AS A NOISY BIFURCATION: A REVIEW |
title_full_unstemmed |
International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos © World Scientific Publishing Company PREDICTING CLIMATE TIPPING AS A NOISY BIFURCATION: A REVIEW |
title_sort |
international journal of bifurcation and chaos © world scientific publishing company predicting climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a review |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.369.9465 http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate change/Data sources/Thompson tipping points.pdf |
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Arctic Pacific |
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Arctic Pacific |
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Arctic |
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Arctic |
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http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate change/Data sources/Thompson tipping points.pdf |
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http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.369.9465 http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate change/Data sources/Thompson tipping points.pdf |
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Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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