Earth th System Modeling: li New Directions for a Predictive Science

• Main Author: John B. Drake
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Subjects: North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.368.8213; http://igmcs.utk.edu/sites/igmcs/files/presentations/Earth-system-modeling-Drake.pdf

� � Multi Multi-scale lti scale chaotic system stem � � Internal modes and forced modes- variability and climate change The anthropogenic climate change “fingerprint”. In the absence of human-induced human induced changes to the atmosphere, the earth would be in a cooling trend (simulations were carried out using NCAR, ORNL and NERSC computing platforms) Key advances •Weather forecast skill and data assimilation techniques •ENSO phenomena and teleconnections •Ocean thermohaline circulation and abrupt change •GHG and aerosol effects on radiation balance •Coupled GCMs with ensemble studiesGlobal Global-average average radiative forcing estimates and rangesThe Earth System is a Coupled System: What can you hope to predict? di t? New predictive skill for decadal prediction is needed to inform adaptation decisions and better understand the consequences of climate changeHigh resolution atmosphereClimate Change AttributionPast climates, Milankovich cyclesProjections of Future Changes in Climate For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected. Earlier IPCC projections of 0.15 to 0.3 oC per decade o can now be compared with observed values of 0.2 CProjections of Future Changes in ClimateProjections of Future Changes in Climate Projected warming in 21st century expected to be greatest t over land and at most high northern latitudes and least over the