DOI 10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8 Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example
Abstract Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.365.6825 2023-05-15T15:34:13+02:00 DOI 10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8 Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example Baruch Fischhoff Wändi Bruine Bruin Ümit Güvenç Denise Caruso Larry Brilliant C Springer Science Business Media B. Fischhoff W. Bruine Bruin Ü. Güvenç D. Caruso L. Brilliant The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.365.6825 http://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/sds/docs/fischhoff/JRU-disaster risks.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.365.6825 http://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/sds/docs/fischhoff/JRU-disaster risks.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/sds/docs/fischhoff/JRU-disaster risks.pdf I1 O21 Avian text ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T01:02:18Z Abstract Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical variables, then to instantiate them in terms of their probability. Disaster risk analysis faces complex, novel processes that strain the capabilities of both approaches. We propose an approach that integrates elements of each, relying on what we call structured scenarios and computable models. It is illustrated by framing the analysis of plans for a possible avian flu pandemic. Text Avian flu Unknown |
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I1 O21 Avian Baruch Fischhoff Wändi Bruine Bruin Ümit Güvenç Denise Caruso Larry Brilliant C Springer Science Business Media B. Fischhoff W. Bruine Bruin Ü. Güvenç D. Caruso L. Brilliant DOI 10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8 Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example |
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I1 O21 Avian |
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Abstract Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical variables, then to instantiate them in terms of their probability. Disaster risk analysis faces complex, novel processes that strain the capabilities of both approaches. We propose an approach that integrates elements of each, relying on what we call structured scenarios and computable models. It is illustrated by framing the analysis of plans for a possible avian flu pandemic. |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Baruch Fischhoff Wändi Bruine Bruin Ümit Güvenç Denise Caruso Larry Brilliant C Springer Science Business Media B. Fischhoff W. Bruine Bruin Ü. Güvenç D. Caruso L. Brilliant |
author_facet |
Baruch Fischhoff Wändi Bruine Bruin Ümit Güvenç Denise Caruso Larry Brilliant C Springer Science Business Media B. Fischhoff W. Bruine Bruin Ü. Güvenç D. Caruso L. Brilliant |
author_sort |
Baruch Fischhoff |
title |
DOI 10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8 Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example |
title_short |
DOI 10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8 Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example |
title_full |
DOI 10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8 Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example |
title_fullStr |
DOI 10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8 Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example |
title_full_unstemmed |
DOI 10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8 Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example |
title_sort |
doi 10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8 analyzing disaster risks and plans: an avian flu example |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.365.6825 http://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/sds/docs/fischhoff/JRU-disaster risks.pdf |
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Avian flu |
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Avian flu |
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http://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/sds/docs/fischhoff/JRU-disaster risks.pdf |
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http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.365.6825 http://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/sds/docs/fischhoff/JRU-disaster risks.pdf |
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Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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