3858 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 138 Retrospective Forecasts of the Hurricane Season Using a Global Atmospheric Model Assuming Persistence of SST Anomalies
Retrospective predictions of seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic and east Pacific are generated using an atmospheric model with 50-km horizontal resolution by simply persisting sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from June through the hurricane season. Using an ensemble of 5 realizations...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.363.4831 2023-05-15T17:28:44+02:00 3858 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 138 Retrospective Forecasts of the Hurricane Season Using a Global Atmospheric Model Assuming Persistence of SST Anomalies Ming Zhao Isaac M. Held Gabriel A. Vecchi The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2010 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.363.4831 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/zhv_10_c180fcst.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.363.4831 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/zhv_10_c180fcst.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/zhv_10_c180fcst.pdf text 2010 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T00:56:20Z Retrospective predictions of seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic and east Pacific are generated using an atmospheric model with 50-km horizontal resolution by simply persisting sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from June through the hurricane season. Using an ensemble of 5 realizations for each year between 1982 and 2008, the correlations of the model mean predictions with observations of basin-wide hurricane frequency are 0.69 in the North Atlantic and 0.58 in the east Pacific. In the North Atlantic, a significant part of the degradation in skill as compared to a model forced with observed SSTs during the hurricane season (correlation of 0.78) can be explained by the change from June through the hurricane season in one parameter, the difference between the SST in the main development region and the tropical mean SST. In fact, simple linear regression models with this one predictor perform nearly as well as the full dynamical model for basin-wide hurricane frequency in both the east Pacific and the North Atlantic. The implication is that the quality of seasonal forecasts based on a coupled atmosphere–ocean model will depend in large part on the model’s ability to predict the evolution of this difference between main development region SST and tropical mean SST. 1. Text North Atlantic Unknown Pacific |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
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ftciteseerx |
language |
English |
description |
Retrospective predictions of seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic and east Pacific are generated using an atmospheric model with 50-km horizontal resolution by simply persisting sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from June through the hurricane season. Using an ensemble of 5 realizations for each year between 1982 and 2008, the correlations of the model mean predictions with observations of basin-wide hurricane frequency are 0.69 in the North Atlantic and 0.58 in the east Pacific. In the North Atlantic, a significant part of the degradation in skill as compared to a model forced with observed SSTs during the hurricane season (correlation of 0.78) can be explained by the change from June through the hurricane season in one parameter, the difference between the SST in the main development region and the tropical mean SST. In fact, simple linear regression models with this one predictor perform nearly as well as the full dynamical model for basin-wide hurricane frequency in both the east Pacific and the North Atlantic. The implication is that the quality of seasonal forecasts based on a coupled atmosphere–ocean model will depend in large part on the model’s ability to predict the evolution of this difference between main development region SST and tropical mean SST. 1. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Ming Zhao Isaac M. Held Gabriel A. Vecchi |
spellingShingle |
Ming Zhao Isaac M. Held Gabriel A. Vecchi 3858 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 138 Retrospective Forecasts of the Hurricane Season Using a Global Atmospheric Model Assuming Persistence of SST Anomalies |
author_facet |
Ming Zhao Isaac M. Held Gabriel A. Vecchi |
author_sort |
Ming Zhao |
title |
3858 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 138 Retrospective Forecasts of the Hurricane Season Using a Global Atmospheric Model Assuming Persistence of SST Anomalies |
title_short |
3858 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 138 Retrospective Forecasts of the Hurricane Season Using a Global Atmospheric Model Assuming Persistence of SST Anomalies |
title_full |
3858 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 138 Retrospective Forecasts of the Hurricane Season Using a Global Atmospheric Model Assuming Persistence of SST Anomalies |
title_fullStr |
3858 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 138 Retrospective Forecasts of the Hurricane Season Using a Global Atmospheric Model Assuming Persistence of SST Anomalies |
title_full_unstemmed |
3858 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 138 Retrospective Forecasts of the Hurricane Season Using a Global Atmospheric Model Assuming Persistence of SST Anomalies |
title_sort |
3858 monthly weather review volume 138 retrospective forecasts of the hurricane season using a global atmospheric model assuming persistence of sst anomalies |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.363.4831 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/zhv_10_c180fcst.pdf |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/zhv_10_c180fcst.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.363.4831 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/zhv_10_c180fcst.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
_version_ |
1766121591394009088 |