An evolutionary model of influenza A with drift and shift
Abstract. Influenza A virus evolves through two types of evolutionary mechanisms – drift and shift. These two evolutionary mechanisms allow the pathogen to infect us repeatedly, as well as occasionally create pandemics with large morbidity and mortality. Here we introduce a novel model that incorpor...
Main Author: | |
---|---|
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.352.8276 http://www.math.ufl.edu/~maia/BFluMA_2RRR.pdf |
id |
ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.352.8276 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.352.8276 2023-05-15T15:34:26+02:00 An evolutionary model of influenza A with drift and shift Maia Martcheva The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.352.8276 http://www.math.ufl.edu/~maia/BFluMA_2RRR.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.352.8276 http://www.math.ufl.edu/~maia/BFluMA_2RRR.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.math.ufl.edu/~maia/BFluMA_2RRR.pdf avian influenza evolution drift shift bird-to-human avian strain pandemic strain human seasonal influenza reproduction numbers invasion reproduction numbers global stability persistence text ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T00:25:50Z Abstract. Influenza A virus evolves through two types of evolutionary mechanisms – drift and shift. These two evolutionary mechanisms allow the pathogen to infect us repeatedly, as well as occasionally create pandemics with large morbidity and mortality. Here we introduce a novel model that incorporates both evolutionary mechanisms. This necessitates the modeling of three types of strains- seasonal human strains, birdto-human transmittable H5N1 strains and evolved pandemic H5N1 strain. We define reproduction and invasion reproduction numbers and use them to establish the presence of dominant and coexistence equilibria. We find that amino-acid substitution structure of human influenza can destabilize the human influenza equilibrium and sustained oscillations are possible. We find that for low levels of infection in domestic birds, these oscillations persist, inducing oscillations in the number of humans infected with the avian flu strain. The oscillations have period of 365 days, similar to the one that can be observed in the cumulative number of human H5N1 cases reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). Furthermore, we establish some partial global results on the competition of the strains. Text Avian flu Unknown |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
ftciteseerx |
language |
English |
topic |
avian influenza evolution drift shift bird-to-human avian strain pandemic strain human seasonal influenza reproduction numbers invasion reproduction numbers global stability persistence |
spellingShingle |
avian influenza evolution drift shift bird-to-human avian strain pandemic strain human seasonal influenza reproduction numbers invasion reproduction numbers global stability persistence Maia Martcheva An evolutionary model of influenza A with drift and shift |
topic_facet |
avian influenza evolution drift shift bird-to-human avian strain pandemic strain human seasonal influenza reproduction numbers invasion reproduction numbers global stability persistence |
description |
Abstract. Influenza A virus evolves through two types of evolutionary mechanisms – drift and shift. These two evolutionary mechanisms allow the pathogen to infect us repeatedly, as well as occasionally create pandemics with large morbidity and mortality. Here we introduce a novel model that incorporates both evolutionary mechanisms. This necessitates the modeling of three types of strains- seasonal human strains, birdto-human transmittable H5N1 strains and evolved pandemic H5N1 strain. We define reproduction and invasion reproduction numbers and use them to establish the presence of dominant and coexistence equilibria. We find that amino-acid substitution structure of human influenza can destabilize the human influenza equilibrium and sustained oscillations are possible. We find that for low levels of infection in domestic birds, these oscillations persist, inducing oscillations in the number of humans infected with the avian flu strain. The oscillations have period of 365 days, similar to the one that can be observed in the cumulative number of human H5N1 cases reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). Furthermore, we establish some partial global results on the competition of the strains. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Maia Martcheva |
author_facet |
Maia Martcheva |
author_sort |
Maia Martcheva |
title |
An evolutionary model of influenza A with drift and shift |
title_short |
An evolutionary model of influenza A with drift and shift |
title_full |
An evolutionary model of influenza A with drift and shift |
title_fullStr |
An evolutionary model of influenza A with drift and shift |
title_full_unstemmed |
An evolutionary model of influenza A with drift and shift |
title_sort |
evolutionary model of influenza a with drift and shift |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.352.8276 http://www.math.ufl.edu/~maia/BFluMA_2RRR.pdf |
genre |
Avian flu |
genre_facet |
Avian flu |
op_source |
http://www.math.ufl.edu/~maia/BFluMA_2RRR.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.352.8276 http://www.math.ufl.edu/~maia/BFluMA_2RRR.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
_version_ |
1766364831492866048 |