Health Scenarios for a Warming World

• Main Authors: Curtis Mayfield, Sea Ice
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Subjects: Ocean acidification
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.350.4343

)—the greenhouse gas produced by human activities in the greatest quantities—is long lived in the atmosphere, so decisions made today to continue adding CO 2 into the atmosphere may lock future generations into a range of human health and environmental impacts, some of which could become very severe, according to a committee of the National Research Council (NRC). In a report that looks at the short- and long-term effects of the stabilization of Earth’s temperature, the NRC committee quantifies, as much as possible, the outcomes of different stabilization targets for the planet, with a focus on the United States. 1 The report synthesizes global warming science in myriad fields along with research on the potential impacts for human health and other arenas. Then the committee adds a twist: rather than expressing climate goals in terms of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO 2, the authors assess such goals using global mean temperature change as the primary metric. The twist allows the authors to link the potential impacts from climate change more directly to temperature change. Research to date suggests many potential impacts can be directly linked to temperature, or to things that can be themselves linked to temperature (e.g., precipitation), although some (e.g., ocean acidification) are linked directly to CO 2 concentration, says Damon Matthews of Concordia University, a report coauthor. “But in this report we were. noting the additional impacts you would expect for a given degree