An Exploratory Assessment of the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas Stock of Bowhead Whales Using a Stochastic Population Dynamics Model

• Main Authors: David Poole, Geof H. Givens
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2000
• Subjects: Chukchi
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.32.1090; http://www.stat.colostate.edu/~geof/documents/stochass.a.ps

The stochastic population dynamics model used by Aboriginal Whaling Management Procedure developers is revised to correct weaknesses related to uncertainty parameterisation and replacement yield estimation. Two variants of this model, along with the standard deterministic version, are used to assess the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales. The variants differ with respect to the magnitude and complexity of the stochastic variation they introduce into natural mortality and birth/calf survival processes. An allowable catch statistic, Q 0 , is defined for appropriate use with stochastic model assessments. Using the same assessment methods, likelihood and priors as IWC (??International Whaling Commission1999), we find 5 th percentiles of Q 0 to be 117, 107, and 100 for the deterministic, simpler stochastic, and extreme stochastic models, respectively. Bayes factor results show that there is no evidence suggesting that either stochastic model should be favored .