Is the recorded increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?
[1] The number of North Atlantic tropical storms lasting 2 days or less exhibits a large increase starting from the middle of the 20th century, driving the increase in recorded number of tropical storms over the past century. Here we present a set of quantitative analyses to assess whether this beha...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.306.7738 2023-05-15T17:27:12+02:00 Is the recorded increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious? Gabriele Villarini Gabriel A. Vecchi Thomas R. Knutson James A. Smith The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.306.7738 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/VVKS_10_Shorties.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.306.7738 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/VVKS_10_Shorties.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/VVKS_10_Shorties.pdf systems [e.g Landsea et al 2004 Chang and Guo 2007 text ftciteseerx 2016-01-07T22:18:59Z [1] The number of North Atlantic tropical storms lasting 2 days or less exhibits a large increase starting from the middle of the 20th century, driving the increase in recorded number of tropical storms over the past century. Here we present a set of quantitative analyses to assess whether this behavior is more likely associated with climate variability/ change or with changes in observing systems. By using statistical methods combined with the current understanding of the physical processes, we are unable to find support for the hypothesis that the century‐scale record of short‐lived tropical cyclones in the Atlantic contains a detectable real climate signal. Therefore, we interpret the long‐term secular increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms as likely to be substantially inflated by observing system changes over time. These results strongly suggest that studies examining the frequency of North Atlantic tropical storms over the historical era (between the 19th century and present) should focus on storms of duration greater than about 2 days. Text North Atlantic Unknown |
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systems [e.g Landsea et al 2004 Chang and Guo 2007 |
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systems [e.g Landsea et al 2004 Chang and Guo 2007 Gabriele Villarini Gabriel A. Vecchi Thomas R. Knutson James A. Smith Is the recorded increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious? |
topic_facet |
systems [e.g Landsea et al 2004 Chang and Guo 2007 |
description |
[1] The number of North Atlantic tropical storms lasting 2 days or less exhibits a large increase starting from the middle of the 20th century, driving the increase in recorded number of tropical storms over the past century. Here we present a set of quantitative analyses to assess whether this behavior is more likely associated with climate variability/ change or with changes in observing systems. By using statistical methods combined with the current understanding of the physical processes, we are unable to find support for the hypothesis that the century‐scale record of short‐lived tropical cyclones in the Atlantic contains a detectable real climate signal. Therefore, we interpret the long‐term secular increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms as likely to be substantially inflated by observing system changes over time. These results strongly suggest that studies examining the frequency of North Atlantic tropical storms over the historical era (between the 19th century and present) should focus on storms of duration greater than about 2 days. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Gabriele Villarini Gabriel A. Vecchi Thomas R. Knutson James A. Smith |
author_facet |
Gabriele Villarini Gabriel A. Vecchi Thomas R. Knutson James A. Smith |
author_sort |
Gabriele Villarini |
title |
Is the recorded increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious? |
title_short |
Is the recorded increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious? |
title_full |
Is the recorded increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious? |
title_fullStr |
Is the recorded increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Is the recorded increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious? |
title_sort |
is the recorded increase in short‐duration north atlantic tropical storms spurious? |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.306.7738 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/VVKS_10_Shorties.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/VVKS_10_Shorties.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.306.7738 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/VVKS_10_Shorties.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766119158916841472 |