Solar arctic-mediated climate variation on multidecadal to centennial timescales: empirical evidence, mechanistic explanation, and testable consequences
Abstract: Soon (2005) showed that the variable total solar irradiance (TSI) could explain, rather surprisingly, well over 75 % of the variance for the decadally smoothed Arctic-wide surface air temperature over the past 130 years. The present paper provides additional empirical evidence for this phy...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.306.5163 2023-05-15T14:43:23+02:00 Solar arctic-mediated climate variation on multidecadal to centennial timescales: empirical evidence, mechanistic explanation, and testable consequences Willie W. -h. Soon The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2009 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.306.5163 http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Soon09-June4-PGEO_30n02_144-184-Soon.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.306.5163 http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Soon09-June4-PGEO_30n02_144-184-Soon.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Soon09-June4-PGEO_30n02_144-184-Soon.pdf text 2009 ftciteseerx 2016-01-07T22:18:14Z Abstract: Soon (2005) showed that the variable total solar irradiance (TSI) could explain, rather surprisingly, well over 75 % of the variance for the decadally smoothed Arctic-wide surface air temperature over the past 130 years. The present paper provides additional empirical evidence for this physical connection, both through several newly published high-resolution paleo-proxy records and through robust climate-process modeling outputs. This paper proposes a mechanistic explanation, involving: (1) the variable strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) or thermohaline circulation (THC); (2) the shift and modulation of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainbelt and tropical Atlantic ocean conditions; and (3) the intensity of the wind-driven subtropical and subpolar gyre circulation, across both the North Atlantic and North Pacific. A unique test of this proposed solar TSI–Arctic thermal–salinity–cryospheric coupling mechanism is the 5- to 20-year delay effect on the peak Atlantic MOC flow rate centered near 30–35°N, and on sea surface temperature (SST) for the tropical Atlantic. The solar Arctic–mediated climate mechanism on multidecadal to centennial timescales presented here can be compared with and differentiated from both the related solar TSI and UV irradiance forcing on decadal timescales. The ultimate goal of this research is to gain sufficient mechanistic details so that the proposed solar–Arctic climate connection on multidecadal to centennial timescales can be confirmed or falsified. A further incentive is to expand this physical connection to longer, millennial-scale variability as motivated by the multiscale climate interactions shown by Braun et al. (2005), Weng (2005), and Dima and Lohmann (2009). [Key words: solar–Arctic climate connection, total solar irradiance, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, climate variability.] Text Arctic North Atlantic Unknown Arctic Pacific |
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Abstract: Soon (2005) showed that the variable total solar irradiance (TSI) could explain, rather surprisingly, well over 75 % of the variance for the decadally smoothed Arctic-wide surface air temperature over the past 130 years. The present paper provides additional empirical evidence for this physical connection, both through several newly published high-resolution paleo-proxy records and through robust climate-process modeling outputs. This paper proposes a mechanistic explanation, involving: (1) the variable strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) or thermohaline circulation (THC); (2) the shift and modulation of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainbelt and tropical Atlantic ocean conditions; and (3) the intensity of the wind-driven subtropical and subpolar gyre circulation, across both the North Atlantic and North Pacific. A unique test of this proposed solar TSI–Arctic thermal–salinity–cryospheric coupling mechanism is the 5- to 20-year delay effect on the peak Atlantic MOC flow rate centered near 30–35°N, and on sea surface temperature (SST) for the tropical Atlantic. The solar Arctic–mediated climate mechanism on multidecadal to centennial timescales presented here can be compared with and differentiated from both the related solar TSI and UV irradiance forcing on decadal timescales. The ultimate goal of this research is to gain sufficient mechanistic details so that the proposed solar–Arctic climate connection on multidecadal to centennial timescales can be confirmed or falsified. A further incentive is to expand this physical connection to longer, millennial-scale variability as motivated by the multiscale climate interactions shown by Braun et al. (2005), Weng (2005), and Dima and Lohmann (2009). [Key words: solar–Arctic climate connection, total solar irradiance, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, climate variability.] |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Willie W. -h. Soon |
spellingShingle |
Willie W. -h. Soon Solar arctic-mediated climate variation on multidecadal to centennial timescales: empirical evidence, mechanistic explanation, and testable consequences |
author_facet |
Willie W. -h. Soon |
author_sort |
Willie W. -h. Soon |
title |
Solar arctic-mediated climate variation on multidecadal to centennial timescales: empirical evidence, mechanistic explanation, and testable consequences |
title_short |
Solar arctic-mediated climate variation on multidecadal to centennial timescales: empirical evidence, mechanistic explanation, and testable consequences |
title_full |
Solar arctic-mediated climate variation on multidecadal to centennial timescales: empirical evidence, mechanistic explanation, and testable consequences |
title_fullStr |
Solar arctic-mediated climate variation on multidecadal to centennial timescales: empirical evidence, mechanistic explanation, and testable consequences |
title_full_unstemmed |
Solar arctic-mediated climate variation on multidecadal to centennial timescales: empirical evidence, mechanistic explanation, and testable consequences |
title_sort |
solar arctic-mediated climate variation on multidecadal to centennial timescales: empirical evidence, mechanistic explanation, and testable consequences |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.306.5163 http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Soon09-June4-PGEO_30n02_144-184-Soon.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic |
op_source |
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Soon09-June4-PGEO_30n02_144-184-Soon.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.306.5163 http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Soon09-June4-PGEO_30n02_144-184-Soon.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766315039998869504 |