Decadal Variations in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures
Interannual to decadal variations in Earth global temperature estimates have often been identified with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. However, we show that variability on timescales of 2-15 years in mean annual global land surface temperature anomalies, Tavg are more closely correlated...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.296.5815 2023-05-15T17:33:22+02:00 Decadal Variations in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures Richard A. Muller Judith Curry Donald Groom Robert Jacobsen Saul Perlmutter Robert Rohde Arthur Rosenfeld Charlotte Wickham The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.296.5815 http://climatechange.procon.org/sourcefiles/berkeley-earth-decadal-variations.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.296.5815 http://climatechange.procon.org/sourcefiles/berkeley-earth-decadal-variations.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://climatechange.procon.org/sourcefiles/berkeley-earth-decadal-variations.pdf text ftciteseerx 2016-01-07T21:49:11Z Interannual to decadal variations in Earth global temperature estimates have often been identified with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. However, we show that variability on timescales of 2-15 years in mean annual global land surface temperature anomalies, Tavg are more closely correlated with variability in sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. In particular, the cross-correlation of annually-averaged values of Tavg with annual values of the AMO, the Atlantic Mutidecadal Oscillation index, is much stronger than the cross-correlation of Tavg with ENSO. The pattern of fluctuations in Tavg from 1950 to 2010 reflects true climate variability, and is not an artifact of station sampling. A world map of temperature correlations shows that the association with AMO is broadly distributed and unidirectional. The effect of El Nino on temperature is locally stronger, but can be of either sign, leading to less impact on the global average. We identify one strong narrow spectral peak in the AMO at period 9.1 ± 0.4 years and p-value 1.7 % (CL 98.3%). Variations in the flow of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may be responsible for some of the 2-15 year variability observed in global land temperatures. 1. Text North Atlantic Unknown |
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description |
Interannual to decadal variations in Earth global temperature estimates have often been identified with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. However, we show that variability on timescales of 2-15 years in mean annual global land surface temperature anomalies, Tavg are more closely correlated with variability in sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. In particular, the cross-correlation of annually-averaged values of Tavg with annual values of the AMO, the Atlantic Mutidecadal Oscillation index, is much stronger than the cross-correlation of Tavg with ENSO. The pattern of fluctuations in Tavg from 1950 to 2010 reflects true climate variability, and is not an artifact of station sampling. A world map of temperature correlations shows that the association with AMO is broadly distributed and unidirectional. The effect of El Nino on temperature is locally stronger, but can be of either sign, leading to less impact on the global average. We identify one strong narrow spectral peak in the AMO at period 9.1 ± 0.4 years and p-value 1.7 % (CL 98.3%). Variations in the flow of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may be responsible for some of the 2-15 year variability observed in global land temperatures. 1. |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Richard A. Muller Judith Curry Donald Groom Robert Jacobsen Saul Perlmutter Robert Rohde Arthur Rosenfeld Charlotte Wickham |
spellingShingle |
Richard A. Muller Judith Curry Donald Groom Robert Jacobsen Saul Perlmutter Robert Rohde Arthur Rosenfeld Charlotte Wickham Decadal Variations in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures |
author_facet |
Richard A. Muller Judith Curry Donald Groom Robert Jacobsen Saul Perlmutter Robert Rohde Arthur Rosenfeld Charlotte Wickham |
author_sort |
Richard A. Muller |
title |
Decadal Variations in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures |
title_short |
Decadal Variations in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures |
title_full |
Decadal Variations in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures |
title_fullStr |
Decadal Variations in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal Variations in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures |
title_sort |
decadal variations in the global atmospheric land temperatures |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.296.5815 http://climatechange.procon.org/sourcefiles/berkeley-earth-decadal-variations.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
http://climatechange.procon.org/sourcefiles/berkeley-earth-decadal-variations.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.296.5815 http://climatechange.procon.org/sourcefiles/berkeley-earth-decadal-variations.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766131848336900096 |