Dynamics and Predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability
The dynamics and predictability of Stommel's (1961) box model of the thermohaline circulation is studied. This nonlinear model with idealized geometry of the North Atlantic is solved exactly. A phase space analysis of the model reveals that the optimal perturbation affecting long-term climate v...
Main Authors: | , |
---|---|
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
1998
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.23.1776 http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/~lohmann.gerrit/./PSFILES/stommel_Tellus98.ps |
id |
ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.23.1776 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.23.1776 2023-05-15T17:33:33+02:00 Dynamics and Predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability Gerrit Lohmann Joachim Schneider The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 1998 application/postscript http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.23.1776 http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/~lohmann.gerrit/./PSFILES/stommel_Tellus98.ps en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.23.1776 http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/~lohmann.gerrit/./PSFILES/stommel_Tellus98.ps Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/~lohmann.gerrit/./PSFILES/stommel_Tellus98.ps text 1998 ftciteseerx 2016-01-07T18:39:52Z The dynamics and predictability of Stommel's (1961) box model of the thermohaline circulation is studied. This nonlinear model with idealized geometry of the North Atlantic is solved exactly. A phase space analysis of the model reveals that the optimal perturbation affecting long-term climate variability is provided by high latitude haline forcing in the Atlantic ocean, although this perturbation has little resemblance with the most unstable mode of the system and the leading EOF. Furthermore, the predictability problem is investigated by means of singular vector analysis and the evolution of the probability distribution function. Uncertainties in the oceanic initial conditions do increase in the phase space of the model. In the stochastically forced box model with identical oceanic initial conditions, the climate predictability is examined for the damped persistence forecast. We find that the loss of the predictability is related to the different stages of the variance evolution which is also measured by the relative entropy. Our analysis shows that the non-normal system matrix of Stommel's model does affect the dynamics and predictability of the system which is useful for the interpretation of long-term climate variability and predictability. 1 Text North Atlantic Unknown |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
ftciteseerx |
language |
English |
description |
The dynamics and predictability of Stommel's (1961) box model of the thermohaline circulation is studied. This nonlinear model with idealized geometry of the North Atlantic is solved exactly. A phase space analysis of the model reveals that the optimal perturbation affecting long-term climate variability is provided by high latitude haline forcing in the Atlantic ocean, although this perturbation has little resemblance with the most unstable mode of the system and the leading EOF. Furthermore, the predictability problem is investigated by means of singular vector analysis and the evolution of the probability distribution function. Uncertainties in the oceanic initial conditions do increase in the phase space of the model. In the stochastically forced box model with identical oceanic initial conditions, the climate predictability is examined for the damped persistence forecast. We find that the loss of the predictability is related to the different stages of the variance evolution which is also measured by the relative entropy. Our analysis shows that the non-normal system matrix of Stommel's model does affect the dynamics and predictability of the system which is useful for the interpretation of long-term climate variability and predictability. 1 |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Gerrit Lohmann Joachim Schneider |
spellingShingle |
Gerrit Lohmann Joachim Schneider Dynamics and Predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability |
author_facet |
Gerrit Lohmann Joachim Schneider |
author_sort |
Gerrit Lohmann |
title |
Dynamics and Predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability |
title_short |
Dynamics and Predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability |
title_full |
Dynamics and Predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability |
title_fullStr |
Dynamics and Predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dynamics and Predictability of Stommel's box model: A phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability |
title_sort |
dynamics and predictability of stommel's box model: a phase space perspective with implications for decadal climate variability |
publishDate |
1998 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.23.1776 http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/~lohmann.gerrit/./PSFILES/stommel_Tellus98.ps |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/~lohmann.gerrit/./PSFILES/stommel_Tellus98.ps |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.23.1776 http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/~lohmann.gerrit/./PSFILES/stommel_Tellus98.ps |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
_version_ |
1766132083922567168 |