2007a: Statistical modeling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks, Tellus
(Manuscript received XXX; in final form YYY) We present a statistical model of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks from genesis site through lysis. To propagate tracks we use the means and variances of latitudinal and longitudinal displacements and model the remaining anomalies as autoregressive....
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.224.8968 2023-05-15T17:29:55+02:00 2007a: Statistical modeling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks, Tellus M. Hall Stephen Jewson The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.224.8968 http://stephenjewson.com/articles/110.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.224.8968 http://stephenjewson.com/articles/110.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://stephenjewson.com/articles/110.pdf text ftciteseerx 2016-01-07T18:27:02Z (Manuscript received XXX; in final form YYY) We present a statistical model of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks from genesis site through lysis. To propagate tracks we use the means and variances of latitudinal and longitudinal displacements and model the remaining anomalies as autoregressive. Coefficients are determined by averaging near-neighbor historical track data, with “near ” determined optimally by using jackknife out-of-sample validation to maximize the likelihood of the observations. The number of cyclones in a simulated year is sampled randomly from the historical record, and the cyclone genesis sites are simulated with a spatial probability density function using kernels with optimized bandwidths. Simulated cyclones suffer lysis with a probability again determined from optimal averaging of historical lysis rates. We evaluate the track model by comparing an ensemble of 1950–2003 simulations to the historical record using several diagnostics, including landfall rates. In most regions, but not all, the observations fall within the variability across the ensemble members, indicating that the simulations and observations are statistically indistinguishable. An intensity component to the TC model, necessary for risk assessment applications, is currently under development. 1 Text North Atlantic Unknown |
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(Manuscript received XXX; in final form YYY) We present a statistical model of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks from genesis site through lysis. To propagate tracks we use the means and variances of latitudinal and longitudinal displacements and model the remaining anomalies as autoregressive. Coefficients are determined by averaging near-neighbor historical track data, with “near ” determined optimally by using jackknife out-of-sample validation to maximize the likelihood of the observations. The number of cyclones in a simulated year is sampled randomly from the historical record, and the cyclone genesis sites are simulated with a spatial probability density function using kernels with optimized bandwidths. Simulated cyclones suffer lysis with a probability again determined from optimal averaging of historical lysis rates. We evaluate the track model by comparing an ensemble of 1950–2003 simulations to the historical record using several diagnostics, including landfall rates. In most regions, but not all, the observations fall within the variability across the ensemble members, indicating that the simulations and observations are statistically indistinguishable. An intensity component to the TC model, necessary for risk assessment applications, is currently under development. 1 |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
M. Hall Stephen Jewson |
spellingShingle |
M. Hall Stephen Jewson 2007a: Statistical modeling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks, Tellus |
author_facet |
M. Hall Stephen Jewson |
author_sort |
M. Hall |
title |
2007a: Statistical modeling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks, Tellus |
title_short |
2007a: Statistical modeling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks, Tellus |
title_full |
2007a: Statistical modeling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks, Tellus |
title_fullStr |
2007a: Statistical modeling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks, Tellus |
title_full_unstemmed |
2007a: Statistical modeling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks, Tellus |
title_sort |
2007a: statistical modeling of north atlantic tropical cyclone tracks, tellus |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.224.8968 http://stephenjewson.com/articles/110.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
http://stephenjewson.com/articles/110.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.224.8968 http://stephenjewson.com/articles/110.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766125163694260224 |