1736 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 24 Estimating Annual Numbers of Atlantic Hurricanes Missing from the HURDAT Database (1878–1965) Using Ship Track Density
This study assesses the impact of imperfect sampling in the presatellite era (between 1878 and 1965) on North Atlantic hurricane activity measures and on the long-term trends in those measures. The results indicate that a substantial upward adjustment of hurricane counts may be needed prior to 1965...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.224.2868 2023-05-15T17:29:27+02:00 1736 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 24 Estimating Annual Numbers of Atlantic Hurricanes Missing from the HURDAT Database (1878–1965) Using Ship Track Density Gabriel A. Vecchi Thomas R. Knutson The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2010 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.224.2868 http://www.gfdl.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/vk10_hurrrecount.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.224.2868 http://www.gfdl.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/vk10_hurrrecount.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.gfdl.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/vk10_hurrrecount.pdf text 2010 ftciteseerx 2016-01-07T18:25:12Z This study assesses the impact of imperfect sampling in the presatellite era (between 1878 and 1965) on North Atlantic hurricane activity measures and on the long-term trends in those measures. The results indicate that a substantial upward adjustment of hurricane counts may be needed prior to 1965 to account for likely ‘‘missed’ ’ hurricanes due to sparse density of reporting ship traffic. After adjusting for the estimate of missed hurricanes in the basin, the long-term (1878–2008) trend in hurricane counts changes from significantly positive to no significant change (with a nominally negative trend). The adjusted hurricane count record is more strongly connected to the difference between main development region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) and tropical-mean SST than with MDR SST. These results do not support the hypothesis that the warming of the tropical North Atlantic due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions has caused Atlantic hurricane frequency to increase. 1. Text North Atlantic Unknown |
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English |
description |
This study assesses the impact of imperfect sampling in the presatellite era (between 1878 and 1965) on North Atlantic hurricane activity measures and on the long-term trends in those measures. The results indicate that a substantial upward adjustment of hurricane counts may be needed prior to 1965 to account for likely ‘‘missed’ ’ hurricanes due to sparse density of reporting ship traffic. After adjusting for the estimate of missed hurricanes in the basin, the long-term (1878–2008) trend in hurricane counts changes from significantly positive to no significant change (with a nominally negative trend). The adjusted hurricane count record is more strongly connected to the difference between main development region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) and tropical-mean SST than with MDR SST. These results do not support the hypothesis that the warming of the tropical North Atlantic due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions has caused Atlantic hurricane frequency to increase. 1. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Gabriel A. Vecchi Thomas R. Knutson |
spellingShingle |
Gabriel A. Vecchi Thomas R. Knutson 1736 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 24 Estimating Annual Numbers of Atlantic Hurricanes Missing from the HURDAT Database (1878–1965) Using Ship Track Density |
author_facet |
Gabriel A. Vecchi Thomas R. Knutson |
author_sort |
Gabriel A. Vecchi |
title |
1736 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 24 Estimating Annual Numbers of Atlantic Hurricanes Missing from the HURDAT Database (1878–1965) Using Ship Track Density |
title_short |
1736 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 24 Estimating Annual Numbers of Atlantic Hurricanes Missing from the HURDAT Database (1878–1965) Using Ship Track Density |
title_full |
1736 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 24 Estimating Annual Numbers of Atlantic Hurricanes Missing from the HURDAT Database (1878–1965) Using Ship Track Density |
title_fullStr |
1736 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 24 Estimating Annual Numbers of Atlantic Hurricanes Missing from the HURDAT Database (1878–1965) Using Ship Track Density |
title_full_unstemmed |
1736 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 24 Estimating Annual Numbers of Atlantic Hurricanes Missing from the HURDAT Database (1878–1965) Using Ship Track Density |
title_sort |
1736 journal of climate volume 24 estimating annual numbers of atlantic hurricanes missing from the hurdat database (1878–1965) using ship track density |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.224.2868 http://www.gfdl.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/vk10_hurrrecount.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
http://www.gfdl.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/vk10_hurrrecount.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.224.2868 http://www.gfdl.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/vk10_hurrrecount.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
_version_ |
1766123578312359936 |