Heightened Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic: Natural Variability or Climate Trend?
1 We find that long-period variations tropical cyclone and hurricane frequency over the past century in the North Atlantic Ocean has occurred as three, relatively stable regimes separated by sharp transitions. Each regime has seen 50 % more cyclones and hurricanes than the previous one and is associ...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.177.1039 2023-05-15T17:31:38+02:00 Heightened Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic: Natural Variability or Climate Trend? Greg J. Holl Peter J. Webster The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.177.1039 http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/people/holland/files/hw2007final.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.177.1039 http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/people/holland/files/hw2007final.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/people/holland/files/hw2007final.pdf which 7 were major hurricanes 3 category 5 hurricanes and 2 category 4 hurricanes in July. The number of tropical cyclones and hurricanes was respectively 2.5 and 2.2 times the long-term seasonal means and the previous record for overall tropical cyclone text ftciteseerx 2016-01-07T16:16:20Z 1 We find that long-period variations tropical cyclone and hurricane frequency over the past century in the North Atlantic Ocean has occurred as three, relatively stable regimes separated by sharp transitions. Each regime has seen 50 % more cyclones and hurricanes than the previous one and is associated with a distinct range of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, there has been a substantial 100-year trend leading to related increases of over 0.7 o C in SST and over 100 % in tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers. It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs and tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming. Superimposed on the evolving tropical cyclone and hurricane climatology is a completely independent oscillation manifested in the proportions of major and minor hurricanes in comparison to the total number of tropical cyclones. This characteristic has no distinguishable net trend and appears to be associated with concomitant variations in the proportion of equatorial and higher-latitude hurricane developments perhaps arising from internal oscillations of the climate system. The period of enhanced major hurricane activity during 1945-1964 is consistent with this oscillation. While there is no trend in the proportion of major hurricanes, the increasing cyclone numbers has lead to a distinct trend in the number of major hurricanes and one that is clearly associated with greenhouse warming. Text North Atlantic Unknown |
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which 7 were major hurricanes 3 category 5 hurricanes and 2 category 4 hurricanes in July. The number of tropical cyclones and hurricanes was respectively 2.5 and 2.2 times the long-term seasonal means and the previous record for overall tropical cyclone |
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which 7 were major hurricanes 3 category 5 hurricanes and 2 category 4 hurricanes in July. The number of tropical cyclones and hurricanes was respectively 2.5 and 2.2 times the long-term seasonal means and the previous record for overall tropical cyclone Greg J. Holl Peter J. Webster Heightened Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic: Natural Variability or Climate Trend? |
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which 7 were major hurricanes 3 category 5 hurricanes and 2 category 4 hurricanes in July. The number of tropical cyclones and hurricanes was respectively 2.5 and 2.2 times the long-term seasonal means and the previous record for overall tropical cyclone |
description |
1 We find that long-period variations tropical cyclone and hurricane frequency over the past century in the North Atlantic Ocean has occurred as three, relatively stable regimes separated by sharp transitions. Each regime has seen 50 % more cyclones and hurricanes than the previous one and is associated with a distinct range of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, there has been a substantial 100-year trend leading to related increases of over 0.7 o C in SST and over 100 % in tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers. It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs and tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming. Superimposed on the evolving tropical cyclone and hurricane climatology is a completely independent oscillation manifested in the proportions of major and minor hurricanes in comparison to the total number of tropical cyclones. This characteristic has no distinguishable net trend and appears to be associated with concomitant variations in the proportion of equatorial and higher-latitude hurricane developments perhaps arising from internal oscillations of the climate system. The period of enhanced major hurricane activity during 1945-1964 is consistent with this oscillation. While there is no trend in the proportion of major hurricanes, the increasing cyclone numbers has lead to a distinct trend in the number of major hurricanes and one that is clearly associated with greenhouse warming. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Greg J. Holl Peter J. Webster |
author_facet |
Greg J. Holl Peter J. Webster |
author_sort |
Greg J. Holl |
title |
Heightened Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic: Natural Variability or Climate Trend? |
title_short |
Heightened Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic: Natural Variability or Climate Trend? |
title_full |
Heightened Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic: Natural Variability or Climate Trend? |
title_fullStr |
Heightened Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic: Natural Variability or Climate Trend? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Heightened Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic: Natural Variability or Climate Trend? |
title_sort |
heightened tropical cyclone activity in the north atlantic: natural variability or climate trend? |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.177.1039 http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/people/holland/files/hw2007final.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/people/holland/files/hw2007final.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.177.1039 http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/people/holland/files/hw2007final.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766129315765813248 |