PERSPECTIVES OCEAN SCIENCE: Global Warming and the Next Ice Age

• Main Authors: Andrew J. Weaver, Claude Hillaire-marcel
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2004
• Subjects: North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.173.2036; http://www.geotop.ca/downloads/CHM/2004-Science.pdf

A popular idea in the media, exemplified by the soon-to-be-released movie The Day After Tomorrow, is that human-induced global warming will cause another ice age. But where did this idea come from? Several recent magazine articles (1-3) report that abrupt climate change was prevalent in the recent geological history of Earth and that there was some early, albeit controversial, evidence from the last interglacial--thought to be slightly warmer than preindustrial times (4)--that abrupt climate change was the norm (5). Consequently, the articles postulate a sequence of events that goes something like this: If global warming were to boost the hydrological cycle, enhanced freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic would shut down the AMO (Atlantic Meridional Overturning), the North Atlantic component of global ocean overturning circulation. This would result in downstream cooling over Europe, leading to the slow growth of glaciers and the onset of the next ice age. This view prevails in the popular press despite a relatively solid