EUROCONTROL EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Main Author: Flight Movements
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2010
• Subjects: for definition. Edition; v1.0 Released Issue Page iEUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast; IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016; Iceland
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.172.8027; http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc404-MT-Flights-Sep10-v1.0.pdf

This report presents the mid-year update of the EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast of flights that was published in February 2010 (MTF10). The forecast considers the development of air traffic in Europe over the next 7 years. This update is focused on using the most-recent available traffic statistics and economic forecasts. The forecast update (MTF10b) is that there will be 11.5 million IFR movements in Europe 1 in 2016, 22 % more than in 2009. This forecast shows that in 2011 traffic will again pass the 10 million flights mark that was first reached in 2007. The main influences on this forecast are: progressive recovery of traffic growth in 2010 interrupted by the flight cancellations due to the volcanic eruption in Iceland; the recent improvement of the economic situation (most European States have emerged from recession); and the cautious optimism of the airline industry, with limited signs of capacity improvements in the coming winter timetable. Updating the forecast with latest economic data and the latest traffic trends has reduced uncertainty about 2010 (which was identified as a risk in MTF10), although to some extent that uncertainty has shifted to the 2011 growth. Compared to MTF10: