APPRAISAL OF AIRPORT ALTERNATIVES IN GREENLAND BY THE USE OF RISK ANALYSIS AND MONTE CARLO
This paper presents an appraisal study of three different airport proposals in Greenland by the use of an adapted version of the Danish CBA-DK model. The assessment model is based on both a deterministic calculation by the use of conventional cost-benefit analysis and a stochastic calculation, where...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.172.2451 2023-05-15T16:27:14+02:00 APPRAISAL OF AIRPORT ALTERNATIVES IN GREENLAND BY THE USE OF RISK ANALYSIS AND MONTE CARLO S. G. Henderson B. Biller M. -h. Hsieh J. Shortle J. D. Tew R. R. Barton Kim Bang Salling Steen Leleur The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.172.2451 http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc07papers/247.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.172.2451 http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc07papers/247.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc07papers/247.pdf text ftciteseerx 2016-01-07T16:04:03Z This paper presents an appraisal study of three different airport proposals in Greenland by the use of an adapted version of the Danish CBA-DK model. The assessment model is based on both a deterministic calculation by the use of conventional cost-benefit analysis and a stochastic calculation, where risk analysis is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation. The feasibility risk adopted in the model is based on assigning probability distributions to the uncertain model parameters. Two probability distributions are presented, the Erlang and normal distribution respectively assigned to the construction cost and the travel time savings. The obtained model results aim to provide an input to informed decision-making based on an account of the level of desired risk as concerns feasibility risks. This level is presented as the probability of obtaining at least a benefitcost ratio of a specified value. Finally, some conclusions and a perspective are presented. 1 Text Greenland Unknown Greenland |
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description |
This paper presents an appraisal study of three different airport proposals in Greenland by the use of an adapted version of the Danish CBA-DK model. The assessment model is based on both a deterministic calculation by the use of conventional cost-benefit analysis and a stochastic calculation, where risk analysis is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation. The feasibility risk adopted in the model is based on assigning probability distributions to the uncertain model parameters. Two probability distributions are presented, the Erlang and normal distribution respectively assigned to the construction cost and the travel time savings. The obtained model results aim to provide an input to informed decision-making based on an account of the level of desired risk as concerns feasibility risks. This level is presented as the probability of obtaining at least a benefitcost ratio of a specified value. Finally, some conclusions and a perspective are presented. 1 |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
S. G. Henderson B. Biller M. -h. Hsieh J. Shortle J. D. Tew R. R. Barton Kim Bang Salling Steen Leleur |
spellingShingle |
S. G. Henderson B. Biller M. -h. Hsieh J. Shortle J. D. Tew R. R. Barton Kim Bang Salling Steen Leleur APPRAISAL OF AIRPORT ALTERNATIVES IN GREENLAND BY THE USE OF RISK ANALYSIS AND MONTE CARLO |
author_facet |
S. G. Henderson B. Biller M. -h. Hsieh J. Shortle J. D. Tew R. R. Barton Kim Bang Salling Steen Leleur |
author_sort |
S. G. Henderson |
title |
APPRAISAL OF AIRPORT ALTERNATIVES IN GREENLAND BY THE USE OF RISK ANALYSIS AND MONTE CARLO |
title_short |
APPRAISAL OF AIRPORT ALTERNATIVES IN GREENLAND BY THE USE OF RISK ANALYSIS AND MONTE CARLO |
title_full |
APPRAISAL OF AIRPORT ALTERNATIVES IN GREENLAND BY THE USE OF RISK ANALYSIS AND MONTE CARLO |
title_fullStr |
APPRAISAL OF AIRPORT ALTERNATIVES IN GREENLAND BY THE USE OF RISK ANALYSIS AND MONTE CARLO |
title_full_unstemmed |
APPRAISAL OF AIRPORT ALTERNATIVES IN GREENLAND BY THE USE OF RISK ANALYSIS AND MONTE CARLO |
title_sort |
appraisal of airport alternatives in greenland by the use of risk analysis and monte carlo |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.172.2451 http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc07papers/247.pdf |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland |
genre_facet |
Greenland |
op_source |
http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc07papers/247.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.172.2451 http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc07papers/247.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766016347239612416 |