Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean
[1] How well can the extent of arctic sea ice be predicted for lead periods of up to one year? The forecast ability of a linear empirical model is explored. It uses as predictors historical information about the ocean and ice obtained from an ice–ocean model retrospective analysis. The monthly model...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.167.2098 2023-05-15T14:51:52+02:00 Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.167.2098 http://psc.apl.washington.edu/lindsay/pdf_files/Lindsay_etal_JGR2008_seasonal_predictions.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.167.2098 http://psc.apl.washington.edu/lindsay/pdf_files/Lindsay_etal_JGR2008_seasonal_predictions.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://psc.apl.washington.edu/lindsay/pdf_files/Lindsay_etal_JGR2008_seasonal_predictions.pdf text ftciteseerx 2016-01-07T15:52:35Z [1] How well can the extent of arctic sea ice be predicted for lead periods of up to one year? The forecast ability of a linear empirical model is explored. It uses as predictors historical information about the ocean and ice obtained from an ice–ocean model retrospective analysis. The monthly model fields are represented by a correlation-weighted average based on the predicted ice extent. The forecast skill of the procedure is found by fitting the model over subsets of the available data and then making subsequent projections using independent predictor data. The forecast skill, relative to climatology, for predictions of the observed September ice extent for the pan-arctic region is 0.77 for six months lead (from March) and 0.75 for 11 months lead (from October). The ice concentration is the most important variable for the first two months and the ocean temperature of the model layer with a depth of 200 to 270 m is most important for longer lead times. The trend accounts for 76 % of the variance of the pan-arctic ice extent, so most of the forecast skill is realized by determining model variables that best represent this trend. For detrended data there is no skill for lead times of 3 months or more. The forecast skill relative to the estimate from the previous year is lower than the climate-relative skill but it is still greater than 0.45 for most lead times. Six-month predictions are also made for each month of the year and regional three-month predictions are made for 45-degree sectors. The ice-ocean model output significantly improves the predictive skill of the forecast model. Text Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice Unknown Arctic Arctic Ocean |
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Open Polar |
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ftciteseerx |
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English |
description |
[1] How well can the extent of arctic sea ice be predicted for lead periods of up to one year? The forecast ability of a linear empirical model is explored. It uses as predictors historical information about the ocean and ice obtained from an ice–ocean model retrospective analysis. The monthly model fields are represented by a correlation-weighted average based on the predicted ice extent. The forecast skill of the procedure is found by fitting the model over subsets of the available data and then making subsequent projections using independent predictor data. The forecast skill, relative to climatology, for predictions of the observed September ice extent for the pan-arctic region is 0.77 for six months lead (from March) and 0.75 for 11 months lead (from October). The ice concentration is the most important variable for the first two months and the ocean temperature of the model layer with a depth of 200 to 270 m is most important for longer lead times. The trend accounts for 76 % of the variance of the pan-arctic ice extent, so most of the forecast skill is realized by determining model variables that best represent this trend. For detrended data there is no skill for lead times of 3 months or more. The forecast skill relative to the estimate from the previous year is lower than the climate-relative skill but it is still greater than 0.45 for most lead times. Six-month predictions are also made for each month of the year and regional three-month predictions are made for 45-degree sectors. The ice-ocean model output significantly improves the predictive skill of the forecast model. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
title |
Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean |
spellingShingle |
Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean |
title_short |
Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean |
title_full |
Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean |
title_sort |
seasonal predictions of ice extent in the arctic ocean |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.167.2098 http://psc.apl.washington.edu/lindsay/pdf_files/Lindsay_etal_JGR2008_seasonal_predictions.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
op_source |
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/lindsay/pdf_files/Lindsay_etal_JGR2008_seasonal_predictions.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.167.2098 http://psc.apl.washington.edu/lindsay/pdf_files/Lindsay_etal_JGR2008_seasonal_predictions.pdf |
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Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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