Coupled chemistry -- climate model simulations for the period 1980 to 2020: Ozone depletion and the start of ozone recovery
. the recent past during which extensive satellite ozone and temperature data exist, and covering the near future when ozone levels are expected to begin to recover. In the first simulation, Rayleigh friction is used to decelerate the polar night jet. In the second simulation, a parametrized spectra...
Main Authors: | , |
---|---|
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2003
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.163.9336 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/jaa0301.pdf?PHPSESSID=11921c661ffc9d9d086301fc9718d9ec |
id |
ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.163.9336 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.163.9336 2023-05-15T13:39:13+02:00 Coupled chemistry -- climate model simulations for the period 1980 to 2020: Ozone depletion and the start of ozone recovery John Austin Neal Butchart The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2003 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.163.9336 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/jaa0301.pdf?PHPSESSID=11921c661ffc9d9d086301fc9718d9ec en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.163.9336 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/jaa0301.pdf?PHPSESSID=11921c661ffc9d9d086301fc9718d9ec Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/jaa0301.pdf?PHPSESSID=11921c661ffc9d9d086301fc9718d9ec text 2003 ftciteseerx 2016-01-07T15:48:22Z . the recent past during which extensive satellite ozone and temperature data exist, and covering the near future when ozone levels are expected to begin to recover. In the first simulation, Rayleigh friction is used to decelerate the polar night jet. In the second simulation, a parametrized spectral gravity-wave forcing scheme is included. This has the effect of considerably reducing the model temperature bias in the polar regions and weakening the polar night jet. In the simulations the concentrations of chlorine, bromine and the well-mixed greenhouse gas concentrations are specified in accordance with past observations and future projected values. The calculated trends in temperature and ozone in the two runs are similar, indicating that model internal variability does not have a significant impact and suggesting that the trends arise largely from changes in external parameters. Typically, after about the year 2000, the trend in the modelled annually averaged ozone changed from a decrease to a small increase. The change was found to be statistically significant in the upper stratosphere and in the lower stratosphere over Antarctica, which are the regions most affected by halogen chemistry. Globally averaged temperature results suggest that the best place to look for future atmospheric change is in the upper stratosphere. Decadally averaged statistics are used to estimate the timing of the start of recovery of total ozone. The simulations indicate no significant further ozone loss from the current atmosphere with minima typically occurring in the years from 2000 to 2005, except in the spring Arctic where ozone values continued to decrease slowly until the end of Text Antarc* Antarctica Arctic polar night Unknown Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
ftciteseerx |
language |
English |
description |
. the recent past during which extensive satellite ozone and temperature data exist, and covering the near future when ozone levels are expected to begin to recover. In the first simulation, Rayleigh friction is used to decelerate the polar night jet. In the second simulation, a parametrized spectral gravity-wave forcing scheme is included. This has the effect of considerably reducing the model temperature bias in the polar regions and weakening the polar night jet. In the simulations the concentrations of chlorine, bromine and the well-mixed greenhouse gas concentrations are specified in accordance with past observations and future projected values. The calculated trends in temperature and ozone in the two runs are similar, indicating that model internal variability does not have a significant impact and suggesting that the trends arise largely from changes in external parameters. Typically, after about the year 2000, the trend in the modelled annually averaged ozone changed from a decrease to a small increase. The change was found to be statistically significant in the upper stratosphere and in the lower stratosphere over Antarctica, which are the regions most affected by halogen chemistry. Globally averaged temperature results suggest that the best place to look for future atmospheric change is in the upper stratosphere. Decadally averaged statistics are used to estimate the timing of the start of recovery of total ozone. The simulations indicate no significant further ozone loss from the current atmosphere with minima typically occurring in the years from 2000 to 2005, except in the spring Arctic where ozone values continued to decrease slowly until the end of |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
John Austin Neal Butchart |
spellingShingle |
John Austin Neal Butchart Coupled chemistry -- climate model simulations for the period 1980 to 2020: Ozone depletion and the start of ozone recovery |
author_facet |
John Austin Neal Butchart |
author_sort |
John Austin |
title |
Coupled chemistry -- climate model simulations for the period 1980 to 2020: Ozone depletion and the start of ozone recovery |
title_short |
Coupled chemistry -- climate model simulations for the period 1980 to 2020: Ozone depletion and the start of ozone recovery |
title_full |
Coupled chemistry -- climate model simulations for the period 1980 to 2020: Ozone depletion and the start of ozone recovery |
title_fullStr |
Coupled chemistry -- climate model simulations for the period 1980 to 2020: Ozone depletion and the start of ozone recovery |
title_full_unstemmed |
Coupled chemistry -- climate model simulations for the period 1980 to 2020: Ozone depletion and the start of ozone recovery |
title_sort |
coupled chemistry -- climate model simulations for the period 1980 to 2020: ozone depletion and the start of ozone recovery |
publishDate |
2003 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.163.9336 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/jaa0301.pdf?PHPSESSID=11921c661ffc9d9d086301fc9718d9ec |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Arctic polar night |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Arctic polar night |
op_source |
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/jaa0301.pdf?PHPSESSID=11921c661ffc9d9d086301fc9718d9ec |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.163.9336 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/jaa0301.pdf?PHPSESSID=11921c661ffc9d9d086301fc9718d9ec |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
_version_ |
1766116272503783424 |