Simulation of interannual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of GCM integrations
The present study examines the simulation of the number of tropical storms produced in GCM integrations with a prescribed SST. A 9-member ensemble of 10-yr integrations (1979–88) of a T42 atmospheric model forced by observed SSTs has been produced; each ensemble member differs only in the initial at...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.143.9100 2023-05-15T17:30:24+02:00 Simulation of interannual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of GCM integrations F. Vitart J. L. Anderson W. F. Stern The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 1997 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.143.9100 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/1997/fpv9701.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.143.9100 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/1997/fpv9701.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/1997/fpv9701.pdf text 1997 ftciteseerx 2016-01-07T15:03:42Z The present study examines the simulation of the number of tropical storms produced in GCM integrations with a prescribed SST. A 9-member ensemble of 10-yr integrations (1979–88) of a T42 atmospheric model forced by observed SSTs has been produced; each ensemble member differs only in the initial atmospheric conditions. An objective procedure for tracking-model-generated tropical storms is applied to this ensemble during the last 9 yr of the integrations (1980–88). The seasonal and monthly variations of tropical storm numbers are compared with observations for each ocean basin. Statistical tools such as the Chi-square test, the F test, and the t test are applied to the ensemble number of tropical storms, leading to the conclusion that the potential predictability is particularly strong over the western North Pacific and the eastern North Pacific, and to a lesser extent over the western North Atlantic. A set of tools including the joint probability distribution and the ranked probability score are used to evaluate the simulation skill of this ensemble simulation. The simulation skill over the western North Atlantic basin appears to be exceptionally high, particularly during years of strong potential predictability. 1. Text North Atlantic Unknown Pacific |
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ftciteseerx |
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English |
description |
The present study examines the simulation of the number of tropical storms produced in GCM integrations with a prescribed SST. A 9-member ensemble of 10-yr integrations (1979–88) of a T42 atmospheric model forced by observed SSTs has been produced; each ensemble member differs only in the initial atmospheric conditions. An objective procedure for tracking-model-generated tropical storms is applied to this ensemble during the last 9 yr of the integrations (1980–88). The seasonal and monthly variations of tropical storm numbers are compared with observations for each ocean basin. Statistical tools such as the Chi-square test, the F test, and the t test are applied to the ensemble number of tropical storms, leading to the conclusion that the potential predictability is particularly strong over the western North Pacific and the eastern North Pacific, and to a lesser extent over the western North Atlantic. A set of tools including the joint probability distribution and the ranked probability score are used to evaluate the simulation skill of this ensemble simulation. The simulation skill over the western North Atlantic basin appears to be exceptionally high, particularly during years of strong potential predictability. 1. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
F. Vitart J. L. Anderson W. F. Stern |
spellingShingle |
F. Vitart J. L. Anderson W. F. Stern Simulation of interannual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of GCM integrations |
author_facet |
F. Vitart J. L. Anderson W. F. Stern |
author_sort |
F. Vitart |
title |
Simulation of interannual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of GCM integrations |
title_short |
Simulation of interannual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of GCM integrations |
title_full |
Simulation of interannual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of GCM integrations |
title_fullStr |
Simulation of interannual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of GCM integrations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulation of interannual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of GCM integrations |
title_sort |
simulation of interannual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of gcm integrations |
publishDate |
1997 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.143.9100 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/1997/fpv9701.pdf |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/1997/fpv9701.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.143.9100 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/1997/fpv9701.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766126776769052672 |