Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: Are warming spring air temperatures the “ultimate” survival control factor

• Main Authors: M G Dyck, W Soon, R K Baydack, D R Legates, S Baliunas, T F Ball, L O Hancock, Hudson Bay
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2007
• Subjects: Arctic; Hudson; Hudson Bay; Stirling; Climate change; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1090.3555; http://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPol/EnviroPhilo/HudsonBay.pdf

Extinction a b s t r a c t Long-term warming of late spring (April-June) air temperatures has been proposed by Stirling et al. [Stirling, I., Lunn, N.J., Iacozza, J., 1999. Long-term Comp. Biol. 44,[163][164][165][166][167][168][169][170][171][172][173][174][175][176] expanded the discussion to the whole circumpolar Arctic and concluded that polar bears will unlikely survive as a species should the computer-predicted scenarios for total disappearance of sea-ice in the Arctic come true. We found that spring air temperatures around the Hudson Bay basin for the past 70 years show no significant warming trend and are more likely identified with the large-amplitude, natural climatic variability that is characteristic of the Arctic. Any role of external forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases remains difficult to identify. We argue, therefore, that the extrapolation of polar bear disappearance is highly premature. Climate models are simply not skilful for the projection of regional sea-ice changes in Hudson Bay or the whole Arctic. Alternative factors, such as increased human-bear interaction, must be taken into account in a more realistic study and explanation of the population ecology of WH polar bears. Both scientific papers and public discussion that continue to fail to recognize the inherent complexity in the adaptive interaction of polar bears with both human and nature will not likely offer any useful, science-based, preservation and management strategies for the species.