2010: Extended-range seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamical-statistical
[1] A hybrid forecast model for seasonal hurricane activity in the North Atlantic is developed using a combined numerical coupled ocean-atmosphere climate and empirical prediction models. Based on a 29-yr (1981-2009) dataset, an empirical relationship developed between the number of seasonal hurrica...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.1089.8495 2023-05-15T17:26:44+02:00 2010: Extended-range seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamical-statistical Hye-Mi Kim Peter J Webster The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1089.8495 http://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Kim%20and%20Webster_2010_GRL.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1089.8495 http://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Kim%20and%20Webster_2010_GRL.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Kim%20and%20Webster_2010_GRL.pdf text ftciteseerx 2020-05-24T00:21:03Z [1] A hybrid forecast model for seasonal hurricane activity in the North Atlantic is developed using a combined numerical coupled ocean-atmosphere climate and empirical prediction models. Based on a 29-yr (1981-2009) dataset, an empirical relationship developed between the number of seasonal hurricane and the largescale variables from ECMWF hindcasts. The increase of seasonal hurricane activity correlates negatively with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over the tropical East Pacific, positively with the SST anomaly over the Main Development Region (MDR) and North Atlantic and the decrease of wind shear over the MDR. The North Atlantic SST and the MDR vertical wind shear are selected as predictors based on sensitivity tests. Forecasts of these predictors are made with the ECMWF climate model run in ensemble mode thus providing a probability distribution of hurricane number. The forecast skill of the hybrid model is better than or at least competitive with publicly-available forecast models but made with a one month earlier lead-time. The hybrid model initialized in June and July 2010 forecasts an active season with 9 hurricanes. Citation: Kim, H.-M., and P. J. Webster (2010), Extended-range seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamical-statistical model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L21705 Text North Atlantic Unknown Pacific |
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English |
description |
[1] A hybrid forecast model for seasonal hurricane activity in the North Atlantic is developed using a combined numerical coupled ocean-atmosphere climate and empirical prediction models. Based on a 29-yr (1981-2009) dataset, an empirical relationship developed between the number of seasonal hurricane and the largescale variables from ECMWF hindcasts. The increase of seasonal hurricane activity correlates negatively with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over the tropical East Pacific, positively with the SST anomaly over the Main Development Region (MDR) and North Atlantic and the decrease of wind shear over the MDR. The North Atlantic SST and the MDR vertical wind shear are selected as predictors based on sensitivity tests. Forecasts of these predictors are made with the ECMWF climate model run in ensemble mode thus providing a probability distribution of hurricane number. The forecast skill of the hybrid model is better than or at least competitive with publicly-available forecast models but made with a one month earlier lead-time. The hybrid model initialized in June and July 2010 forecasts an active season with 9 hurricanes. Citation: Kim, H.-M., and P. J. Webster (2010), Extended-range seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamical-statistical model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L21705 |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Hye-Mi Kim Peter J Webster |
spellingShingle |
Hye-Mi Kim Peter J Webster 2010: Extended-range seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamical-statistical |
author_facet |
Hye-Mi Kim Peter J Webster |
author_sort |
Hye-Mi Kim |
title |
2010: Extended-range seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamical-statistical |
title_short |
2010: Extended-range seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamical-statistical |
title_full |
2010: Extended-range seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamical-statistical |
title_fullStr |
2010: Extended-range seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamical-statistical |
title_full_unstemmed |
2010: Extended-range seasonal hurricane forecasts for the North Atlantic with a hybrid dynamical-statistical |
title_sort |
2010: extended-range seasonal hurricane forecasts for the north atlantic with a hybrid dynamical-statistical |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1089.8495 http://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Kim%20and%20Webster_2010_GRL.pdf |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
http://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Kim%20and%20Webster_2010_GRL.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1089.8495 http://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Kim%20and%20Webster_2010_GRL.pdf |
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Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766118505509289984 |