South Pole neutron monitor forecasting of solar proton radiation intensity
[1] We describe a practical system for forecasting peak intensity and fluence of solar energetic protons in the tens to hundreds of MeV energy range. The system could be useful for forecasting radiation hazard, because peak intensity and fluence are closely related to the medical physics quantities...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.1068.4995 2023-05-15T18:22:00+02:00 South Pole neutron monitor forecasting of solar proton radiation intensity S Y Oh J W Bieber J Clem P Evenson R Pyle Y Yi Y.-K Kim The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2012 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1068.4995 http://www.bartol.udel.edu/gp/neutronm/reprints/2012oh.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1068.4995 http://www.bartol.udel.edu/gp/neutronm/reprints/2012oh.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.bartol.udel.edu/gp/neutronm/reprints/2012oh.pdf text 2012 ftciteseerx 2020-04-26T00:15:56Z [1] We describe a practical system for forecasting peak intensity and fluence of solar energetic protons in the tens to hundreds of MeV energy range. The system could be useful for forecasting radiation hazard, because peak intensity and fluence are closely related to the medical physics quantities peak dose rate and total dose. The method uses a pair of ground-based detectors located at the South Pole to make a measurement of the solar particle energy spectrum at relativistic (GeV) energies, and it then extrapolates this spectrum downward in energy to make a prediction of the peak intensity and fluence at lower energies. A validation study based upon 12 large solar particle events compared the prediction with measurements made aboard GOES spacecraft. This study shows that useful predictions (logarithmic correlation greater than 50%) can be made down to energies of 40-80 MeV (GOES channel P5) in the case of peak intensity, with the prediction leading the observation by 166 min on average. For higher energy GOES channels, the lead times are shorter, but the correlation coefficients are larger. Text South pole Unknown South Pole |
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[1] We describe a practical system for forecasting peak intensity and fluence of solar energetic protons in the tens to hundreds of MeV energy range. The system could be useful for forecasting radiation hazard, because peak intensity and fluence are closely related to the medical physics quantities peak dose rate and total dose. The method uses a pair of ground-based detectors located at the South Pole to make a measurement of the solar particle energy spectrum at relativistic (GeV) energies, and it then extrapolates this spectrum downward in energy to make a prediction of the peak intensity and fluence at lower energies. A validation study based upon 12 large solar particle events compared the prediction with measurements made aboard GOES spacecraft. This study shows that useful predictions (logarithmic correlation greater than 50%) can be made down to energies of 40-80 MeV (GOES channel P5) in the case of peak intensity, with the prediction leading the observation by 166 min on average. For higher energy GOES channels, the lead times are shorter, but the correlation coefficients are larger. |
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The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
S Y Oh J W Bieber J Clem P Evenson R Pyle Y Yi Y.-K Kim |
spellingShingle |
S Y Oh J W Bieber J Clem P Evenson R Pyle Y Yi Y.-K Kim South Pole neutron monitor forecasting of solar proton radiation intensity |
author_facet |
S Y Oh J W Bieber J Clem P Evenson R Pyle Y Yi Y.-K Kim |
author_sort |
S Y Oh |
title |
South Pole neutron monitor forecasting of solar proton radiation intensity |
title_short |
South Pole neutron monitor forecasting of solar proton radiation intensity |
title_full |
South Pole neutron monitor forecasting of solar proton radiation intensity |
title_fullStr |
South Pole neutron monitor forecasting of solar proton radiation intensity |
title_full_unstemmed |
South Pole neutron monitor forecasting of solar proton radiation intensity |
title_sort |
south pole neutron monitor forecasting of solar proton radiation intensity |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1068.4995 http://www.bartol.udel.edu/gp/neutronm/reprints/2012oh.pdf |
geographic |
South Pole |
geographic_facet |
South Pole |
genre |
South pole |
genre_facet |
South pole |
op_source |
http://www.bartol.udel.edu/gp/neutronm/reprints/2012oh.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1068.4995 http://www.bartol.udel.edu/gp/neutronm/reprints/2012oh.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766201356490637312 |