Probability assessment of pressure patterns over the British Isles

• Main Authors: A K A El-Kadi, P A Smithson
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2000
• Subjects: North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1062.2825; http://site.iugaza.edu.ps/kadi/files/2010/02/El-Kadi-and-Smithson20002.pdf

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to advance our understanding of the British atmospheric circulation. Using an automated classification scheme, the circulation changes of pressure patterns (PP) are investigated. Within a framework of the interrelationships between PPs, the transitions and persistence of the atmospheric circulation will be evaluated. The probability assessment of each PP as a measure of its persistence from day-to-day, as well as the preferred transition between the PPs, will be outlined. Circulation groups based on the preferred links between the PPs are discussed and outlined. The transitional and persistence sequences confirm that the predominant atmospheric circulation over the British Isles consists of eastward moving PPs. The British circulation in the period of 1977 -1986 is characterized by a persistence mode rather than a transitional one. Two major circulation modes are identified as being most persistent and each is usually transitional to itself. The PPs are then put into the context of the North Atlantic circulation.