Predicting the population consequences of human disturbance for ringed plovers Charadrius hiaticula: a game theory approach. Ibis
Human disturbance and its potential impacts upon bird populations are currently topical and contentious issues for conservationists. Although many studies have revealed a behavioural impact, or even direct effect on breeding success or survival, these cannot usually be extended to predict the impact...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.1044.606 2023-05-15T15:54:01+02:00 Predicting the population consequences of human disturbance for ringed plovers Charadrius hiaticula: a game theory approach. Ibis Durwyn Liley William J Sutherland The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2007 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1044.606 http://oceanbeachdog2.home.mindspring.com/WSP_Consequences_Human_Behavior.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1044.606 http://oceanbeachdog2.home.mindspring.com/WSP_Consequences_Human_Behavior.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://oceanbeachdog2.home.mindspring.com/WSP_Consequences_Human_Behavior.pdf text 2007 ftciteseerx 2020-04-05T00:16:13Z Human disturbance and its potential impacts upon bird populations are currently topical and contentious issues for conservationists. Although many studies have revealed a behavioural impact, or even direct effect on breeding success or survival, these cannot usually be extended to predict the impact on population size. Here we present a population model that allows predictions of the effect that changes in human numbers, visiting a 9-km-long section of the coastline, may have upon the size of a Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula population. Human disturbance affects Ringed Plovers in our study area through birds avoiding areas of high disturbance and, in addition, through the accidental trampling of a small number of nests by people walking on the beach. Using the level of human disturbance and habitat variables (which define territory quality) it is possible to predict which areas of beach are occupied and therefore the sites available to the population. Breeding success, for a given area of beach, can be predicted from habitat data. Incorporating known, density-independent, adult mortality allows the equilibrium population size to be predicted. This provides a model that predicts population size. This model is then used to predict the population that the site would support with different, hypothetical, levels of disturbance. If nest loss from human activity was prevented, for example by fencing nests, we predict the Plover population size would increase by 8%. A complete absence of human disturbance would cause a population increase of 85%. If the numbers of people were to double, we predict the population would decrease by 23%. Text Charadrius hiaticula Ringed Plover Unknown |
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ftciteseerx |
language |
English |
description |
Human disturbance and its potential impacts upon bird populations are currently topical and contentious issues for conservationists. Although many studies have revealed a behavioural impact, or even direct effect on breeding success or survival, these cannot usually be extended to predict the impact on population size. Here we present a population model that allows predictions of the effect that changes in human numbers, visiting a 9-km-long section of the coastline, may have upon the size of a Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula population. Human disturbance affects Ringed Plovers in our study area through birds avoiding areas of high disturbance and, in addition, through the accidental trampling of a small number of nests by people walking on the beach. Using the level of human disturbance and habitat variables (which define territory quality) it is possible to predict which areas of beach are occupied and therefore the sites available to the population. Breeding success, for a given area of beach, can be predicted from habitat data. Incorporating known, density-independent, adult mortality allows the equilibrium population size to be predicted. This provides a model that predicts population size. This model is then used to predict the population that the site would support with different, hypothetical, levels of disturbance. If nest loss from human activity was prevented, for example by fencing nests, we predict the Plover population size would increase by 8%. A complete absence of human disturbance would cause a population increase of 85%. If the numbers of people were to double, we predict the population would decrease by 23%. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Durwyn Liley William J Sutherland |
spellingShingle |
Durwyn Liley William J Sutherland Predicting the population consequences of human disturbance for ringed plovers Charadrius hiaticula: a game theory approach. Ibis |
author_facet |
Durwyn Liley William J Sutherland |
author_sort |
Durwyn Liley |
title |
Predicting the population consequences of human disturbance for ringed plovers Charadrius hiaticula: a game theory approach. Ibis |
title_short |
Predicting the population consequences of human disturbance for ringed plovers Charadrius hiaticula: a game theory approach. Ibis |
title_full |
Predicting the population consequences of human disturbance for ringed plovers Charadrius hiaticula: a game theory approach. Ibis |
title_fullStr |
Predicting the population consequences of human disturbance for ringed plovers Charadrius hiaticula: a game theory approach. Ibis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting the population consequences of human disturbance for ringed plovers Charadrius hiaticula: a game theory approach. Ibis |
title_sort |
predicting the population consequences of human disturbance for ringed plovers charadrius hiaticula: a game theory approach. ibis |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1044.606 http://oceanbeachdog2.home.mindspring.com/WSP_Consequences_Human_Behavior.pdf |
genre |
Charadrius hiaticula Ringed Plover |
genre_facet |
Charadrius hiaticula Ringed Plover |
op_source |
http://oceanbeachdog2.home.mindspring.com/WSP_Consequences_Human_Behavior.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1044.606 http://oceanbeachdog2.home.mindspring.com/WSP_Consequences_Human_Behavior.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
_version_ |
1766389190245744640 |