Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay
Climate change driven advances in the date of sea ice breakup will increasingly lead to a loss of spring polar bear foraging opportunities on ringed seal pups creating a phenological trophic ' mismatch ' . However, the same shift will lead to a new ' match ' between polar bears a...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.1038.3452 2023-05-15T15:10:29+02:00 Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay Robert F Rockwell Linda J Gormezano David N Koons The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2011 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1038.3452 http://www.sfu.ca/biology/courses/bisc407/presentations2011/mar17b.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1038.3452 http://www.sfu.ca/biology/courses/bisc407/presentations2011/mar17b.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.sfu.ca/biology/courses/bisc407/presentations2011/mar17b.pdf text 2011 ftciteseerx 2020-03-08T01:18:45Z Climate change driven advances in the date of sea ice breakup will increasingly lead to a loss of spring polar bear foraging opportunities on ringed seal pups creating a phenological trophic ' mismatch ' . However, the same shift will lead to a new ' match ' between polar bears and ground nesting birds. Th is new match will be especially prevalent along the Cape Churchill Peninsula of western Hudson Bay where both polar bears and nesting snow geese are abundant. Easily foraged goose eggs will provide at least some of the earlier arriving polar bears with compensation for the energy defi cit accrued through lost seal hunting opportunities. We examine the potential impact of changes in the extent and pattern of polar bear egg predation on snow goose abundance using projection models that account not only for increases in the temporal overlap of the two species but also for autocorrelation and stochasticity in the processes underlying polar bear onshore arrival and snow goose incubation. Egg predation will reduce reproductive output of the nesting lesser snow geese and, under all but trivial rates, will lead to a reduction in the size of their nesting population on the Cape Churchill Peninsula. Stochasticity associated with the asymmetrical advances in polar bear onshore arrival and the snow goose incubation period will lead to periodic mismatches in their overlap. Th ese, in turn, will allow snow goose abundance to increase periodically. Climate driven changes in trophic matches and mismatches may reduce snow goose numbers but will not eliminate this over-abundant species that poses a threat to Arctic landscapes. Text Arctic Climate change Hudson Bay ringed seal Sea ice Unknown Arctic Cape Churchill ENVELOPE(-93.218,-93.218,58.763,58.763) Churchill Peninsula ENVELOPE(-62.781,-62.781,-66.440,-66.440) Hudson Hudson Bay |
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English |
description |
Climate change driven advances in the date of sea ice breakup will increasingly lead to a loss of spring polar bear foraging opportunities on ringed seal pups creating a phenological trophic ' mismatch ' . However, the same shift will lead to a new ' match ' between polar bears and ground nesting birds. Th is new match will be especially prevalent along the Cape Churchill Peninsula of western Hudson Bay where both polar bears and nesting snow geese are abundant. Easily foraged goose eggs will provide at least some of the earlier arriving polar bears with compensation for the energy defi cit accrued through lost seal hunting opportunities. We examine the potential impact of changes in the extent and pattern of polar bear egg predation on snow goose abundance using projection models that account not only for increases in the temporal overlap of the two species but also for autocorrelation and stochasticity in the processes underlying polar bear onshore arrival and snow goose incubation. Egg predation will reduce reproductive output of the nesting lesser snow geese and, under all but trivial rates, will lead to a reduction in the size of their nesting population on the Cape Churchill Peninsula. Stochasticity associated with the asymmetrical advances in polar bear onshore arrival and the snow goose incubation period will lead to periodic mismatches in their overlap. Th ese, in turn, will allow snow goose abundance to increase periodically. Climate driven changes in trophic matches and mismatches may reduce snow goose numbers but will not eliminate this over-abundant species that poses a threat to Arctic landscapes. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Robert F Rockwell Linda J Gormezano David N Koons |
spellingShingle |
Robert F Rockwell Linda J Gormezano David N Koons Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay |
author_facet |
Robert F Rockwell Linda J Gormezano David N Koons |
author_sort |
Robert F Rockwell |
title |
Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay |
title_short |
Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay |
title_full |
Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay |
title_fullStr |
Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay |
title_full_unstemmed |
Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay |
title_sort |
trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western hudson bay |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1038.3452 http://www.sfu.ca/biology/courses/bisc407/presentations2011/mar17b.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-93.218,-93.218,58.763,58.763) ENVELOPE(-62.781,-62.781,-66.440,-66.440) |
geographic |
Arctic Cape Churchill Churchill Peninsula Hudson Hudson Bay |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Cape Churchill Churchill Peninsula Hudson Hudson Bay |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Hudson Bay ringed seal Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Hudson Bay ringed seal Sea ice |
op_source |
http://www.sfu.ca/biology/courses/bisc407/presentations2011/mar17b.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.1038.3452 http://www.sfu.ca/biology/courses/bisc407/presentations2011/mar17b.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
_version_ |
1766341507958177792 |