Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France
International audience Warming trends are responsible for an observed decrease of water discharge in southern France (northwestern Mediterranean). Ongoing climate change and the likely increase of water demand threaten the availability of water resources over the coming decades. Drought indices like...
Published in: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
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ftciradhal:oai:HAL:hal-04003957v1 2023-10-01T03:58:04+02:00 Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France Labrousse, Camille Ludwig, Wolfgang Pinel, Sébastien Sadaoui, Mahrez Toreti, Andrea Lacquement, Guillaume Centre de Formation et de Recherche sur les Environnements Méditérranéens (CEFREM) Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) European Commission - Joint Research Centre Ispra (JRC) Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement (UMR ART-Dev) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM) 2022-12-05 https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-04003957 https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-04003957/document https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-04003957/file/hess-26-6055-2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022 hal-04003957 https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-04003957 https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-04003957/document https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-04003957/file/hess-26-6055-2022.pdf doi:10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1027-5606 EISSN: 1607-7938 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-04003957 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2022, 26 (23), pp.6055-6071. ⟨10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022⟩ https://hess.copernicus.org/ [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftciradhal https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022 2023-09-06T16:26:42Z International audience Warming trends are responsible for an observed decrease of water discharge in southern France (northwestern Mediterranean). Ongoing climate change and the likely increase of water demand threaten the availability of water resources over the coming decades. Drought indices like the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) are increasingly used in climate characterization studies, but little is known about the relationships between these indices, water resources, and the overall atmospheric circulation patterns. In this study, we investigate the relationships between the RDI, water discharge, and four atmospheric teleconnection patterns (TPs) for six coastal river basins in southern France, both for the historical period of the last 60 years and for a worst-case climatic scenario (RCP8.5) reaching the year 2100. We combine global and regional climate model (CGM and RCM, respectively) outputs with a set of observed climatic and hydrological data in order to investigate the past relationships between the RDI, water discharge, and TPs and to project their potential evolution in space and time. Results indicate that annual water discharge can be reduced by −49 % to −88 % by the end of the century under the extreme climate scenario conditions. Due to unequal links with TPs, the hydroclimatic evolution is unevenly distributed within the study area. Indeed a clustering analysis performed with the RDI time series detects two major climate clusters, separating the eastern and western part of the study region. The former indicates stronger relationships with the Atlantic TPs (e.g. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian Oscillation (Scand) patterns), whereas the latter is more closely related to the Mediterranean TPs (Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) and Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO)). The future climate simulations predict an antagonistic evolution in both clusters which are likely driven by decreasing trends of Scand and WeMO. The former provokes a general tendency of lower P ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation CIRAD: HAL (Agricultural Research for Development) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 26 23 6055 6071 |
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Open Polar |
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CIRAD: HAL (Agricultural Research for Development) |
op_collection_id |
ftciradhal |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences Labrousse, Camille Ludwig, Wolfgang Pinel, Sébastien Sadaoui, Mahrez Toreti, Andrea Lacquement, Guillaume Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Warming trends are responsible for an observed decrease of water discharge in southern France (northwestern Mediterranean). Ongoing climate change and the likely increase of water demand threaten the availability of water resources over the coming decades. Drought indices like the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) are increasingly used in climate characterization studies, but little is known about the relationships between these indices, water resources, and the overall atmospheric circulation patterns. In this study, we investigate the relationships between the RDI, water discharge, and four atmospheric teleconnection patterns (TPs) for six coastal river basins in southern France, both for the historical period of the last 60 years and for a worst-case climatic scenario (RCP8.5) reaching the year 2100. We combine global and regional climate model (CGM and RCM, respectively) outputs with a set of observed climatic and hydrological data in order to investigate the past relationships between the RDI, water discharge, and TPs and to project their potential evolution in space and time. Results indicate that annual water discharge can be reduced by −49 % to −88 % by the end of the century under the extreme climate scenario conditions. Due to unequal links with TPs, the hydroclimatic evolution is unevenly distributed within the study area. Indeed a clustering analysis performed with the RDI time series detects two major climate clusters, separating the eastern and western part of the study region. The former indicates stronger relationships with the Atlantic TPs (e.g. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian Oscillation (Scand) patterns), whereas the latter is more closely related to the Mediterranean TPs (Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) and Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO)). The future climate simulations predict an antagonistic evolution in both clusters which are likely driven by decreasing trends of Scand and WeMO. The former provokes a general tendency of lower P ... |
author2 |
Centre de Formation et de Recherche sur les Environnements Méditérranéens (CEFREM) Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) European Commission - Joint Research Centre Ispra (JRC) Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement (UMR ART-Dev) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Labrousse, Camille Ludwig, Wolfgang Pinel, Sébastien Sadaoui, Mahrez Toreti, Andrea Lacquement, Guillaume |
author_facet |
Labrousse, Camille Ludwig, Wolfgang Pinel, Sébastien Sadaoui, Mahrez Toreti, Andrea Lacquement, Guillaume |
author_sort |
Labrousse, Camille |
title |
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France |
title_short |
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France |
title_full |
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France |
title_fullStr |
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France |
title_full_unstemmed |
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France |
title_sort |
declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern mediterranean france |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-04003957 https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-04003957/document https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-04003957/file/hess-26-6055-2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
ISSN: 1027-5606 EISSN: 1607-7938 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-04003957 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2022, 26 (23), pp.6055-6071. ⟨10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022⟩ https://hess.copernicus.org/ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022 hal-04003957 https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-04003957 https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-04003957/document https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-04003957/file/hess-26-6055-2022.pdf doi:10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022 |
container_title |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
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26 |
container_issue |
23 |
container_start_page |
6055 |
op_container_end_page |
6071 |
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1778530465253163008 |