Modeling survival at multi-population scales using mark–recapture data

The demography of vertebrate populations is governed in part by processes operating at large spatial scales that have synchronizing effects on demographic parameters over large geographic areas, and in part, by local processes that generate fluctuations that are independent across populations. We de...

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Published in:Ecology
Main Authors: Grosbois, Vladimir, Harris, M.P., Anker-Nilssen, Tycho, McCleery, R.H., Shaw, D.N., Morgan, B.J.T., Gimenez, Olivier
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2009
Subjects:
Online Access:http://agritrop.cirad.fr/578505/
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/578505/1/08-1657%252E1.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1657.1
id ftcirad:oai:agritrop.cirad.fr:578505
record_format openpolar
spelling ftcirad:oai:agritrop.cirad.fr:578505 2023-05-15T15:27:57+02:00 Modeling survival at multi-population scales using mark–recapture data Grosbois, Vladimir Harris, M.P. Anker-Nilssen, Tycho McCleery, R.H. Shaw, D.N. Morgan, B.J.T. Gimenez, Olivier 2009 text http://agritrop.cirad.fr/578505/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/578505/1/08-1657%252E1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1657.1 eng eng http://agritrop.cirad.fr/578505/ Modeling survival at multi-population scales using mark–recapture data. Grosbois Vladimir, Harris M.P., Anker-Nilssen Tycho, McCleery R.H., Shaw D.N., Morgan B.J.T., Gimenez Olivier. 2009. Ecology, 90 (10) : 2922-2932.https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1657.1 <https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1657.1> http://agritrop.cirad.fr/578505/1/08-1657%252E1.pdf Cirad license info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://agritrop.cirad.fr/mention_legale.html Ecology U30 - Méthodes de recherche U10 - Informatique mathématiques et statistiques L20 - Écologie animale article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2009 ftcirad https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1657.1 2022-04-26T23:02:09Z The demography of vertebrate populations is governed in part by processes operating at large spatial scales that have synchronizing effects on demographic parameters over large geographic areas, and in part, by local processes that generate fluctuations that are independent across populations. We describe a statistical model for the analysis of individual monitoring data at the multi-population scale that allows us to (1) split up temporal variation in survival into two components that account for these two types of processes and (2) evaluate the role of environmental factors in generating these two components. We derive from this model an index of synchrony among populations in the pattern of temporal variation in survival, and we evaluate the extent to which environmental factors contribute to synchronize or desynchronize survival variation among populations. When applied to individual monitoring data from four colonies of the Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica), 67% of between-year variance in adult survival was accounted for by a global spatial-scale component, indicating substantial synchrony among colonies. Local sea surface temperature (SST) accounted for 40% of the global spatial-scale component but also for an equally large fraction of the local-scale component. SST thus acted at the same time as both a synchronizing and a desynchronizing agent. Between-year variation in adult survival not explained by the effect of local SST was as synchronized as total between-year variation, suggesting that other unknown environmental factors acted as synchronizing agents. Our approach, which focuses on demographic mechanisms at the multi-population scale, ideally should be combined with investigations of population size time series in order to characterize thoroughly the processes that underlie patterns of multi-population dynamics and, ultimately, range dynamics. Article in Journal/Newspaper Atlantic puffin fratercula Fratercula arctica CIRAD: Agritrop (Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement) Ecology 90 10 2922 2932
institution Open Polar
collection CIRAD: Agritrop (Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement)
op_collection_id ftcirad
language English
topic U30 - Méthodes de recherche
U10 - Informatique
mathématiques et statistiques
L20 - Écologie animale
spellingShingle U30 - Méthodes de recherche
U10 - Informatique
mathématiques et statistiques
L20 - Écologie animale
Grosbois, Vladimir
Harris, M.P.
Anker-Nilssen, Tycho
McCleery, R.H.
Shaw, D.N.
Morgan, B.J.T.
Gimenez, Olivier
Modeling survival at multi-population scales using mark–recapture data
topic_facet U30 - Méthodes de recherche
U10 - Informatique
mathématiques et statistiques
L20 - Écologie animale
description The demography of vertebrate populations is governed in part by processes operating at large spatial scales that have synchronizing effects on demographic parameters over large geographic areas, and in part, by local processes that generate fluctuations that are independent across populations. We describe a statistical model for the analysis of individual monitoring data at the multi-population scale that allows us to (1) split up temporal variation in survival into two components that account for these two types of processes and (2) evaluate the role of environmental factors in generating these two components. We derive from this model an index of synchrony among populations in the pattern of temporal variation in survival, and we evaluate the extent to which environmental factors contribute to synchronize or desynchronize survival variation among populations. When applied to individual monitoring data from four colonies of the Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica), 67% of between-year variance in adult survival was accounted for by a global spatial-scale component, indicating substantial synchrony among colonies. Local sea surface temperature (SST) accounted for 40% of the global spatial-scale component but also for an equally large fraction of the local-scale component. SST thus acted at the same time as both a synchronizing and a desynchronizing agent. Between-year variation in adult survival not explained by the effect of local SST was as synchronized as total between-year variation, suggesting that other unknown environmental factors acted as synchronizing agents. Our approach, which focuses on demographic mechanisms at the multi-population scale, ideally should be combined with investigations of population size time series in order to characterize thoroughly the processes that underlie patterns of multi-population dynamics and, ultimately, range dynamics.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Grosbois, Vladimir
Harris, M.P.
Anker-Nilssen, Tycho
McCleery, R.H.
Shaw, D.N.
Morgan, B.J.T.
Gimenez, Olivier
author_facet Grosbois, Vladimir
Harris, M.P.
Anker-Nilssen, Tycho
McCleery, R.H.
Shaw, D.N.
Morgan, B.J.T.
Gimenez, Olivier
author_sort Grosbois, Vladimir
title Modeling survival at multi-population scales using mark–recapture data
title_short Modeling survival at multi-population scales using mark–recapture data
title_full Modeling survival at multi-population scales using mark–recapture data
title_fullStr Modeling survival at multi-population scales using mark–recapture data
title_full_unstemmed Modeling survival at multi-population scales using mark–recapture data
title_sort modeling survival at multi-population scales using mark–recapture data
publishDate 2009
url http://agritrop.cirad.fr/578505/
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/578505/1/08-1657%252E1.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1657.1
genre Atlantic puffin
fratercula
Fratercula arctica
genre_facet Atlantic puffin
fratercula
Fratercula arctica
op_source Ecology
op_relation http://agritrop.cirad.fr/578505/
Modeling survival at multi-population scales using mark–recapture data. Grosbois Vladimir, Harris M.P., Anker-Nilssen Tycho, McCleery R.H., Shaw D.N., Morgan B.J.T., Gimenez Olivier. 2009. Ecology, 90 (10) : 2922-2932.https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1657.1 <https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1657.1>
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/578505/1/08-1657%252E1.pdf
op_rights Cirad license
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://agritrop.cirad.fr/mention_legale.html
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1657.1
container_title Ecology
container_volume 90
container_issue 10
container_start_page 2922
op_container_end_page 2932
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