Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study
While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, modeling short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles in the Arctic allows us to simulate near-term climate and health impacts for a sensitive, pristine region that is warming at 3 times the global rate. Atmosphe...
Published in: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
EGU
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2997907 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022 |
id |
ftcicerosfk:oai:pub.cicero.oslo.no:11250/2997907 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftcicerosfk:oai:pub.cicero.oslo.no:11250/2997907 2023-05-15T13:21:35+02:00 Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study Whaley, Cynthia Mahmood, Rashed von Salzen, Knut Winter, Barbara Eckhardt, Sabine Arnold, Stephen R. Beagley, Stephen Becagli, Silvia Chien, Rong-You Christensen, Jesper Damani, Sujay Manish Dong, Xinyi Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos Evangeliou, Nikolaos Faluvegi, Gregory Flanner, Mark G. Fu, Joshua S. Gauss, Michael Giardi, Fabio Gong, Wanmin Hjorth, Jens Liengaard Huang, Lin Im, Ulas Kanaya, Yugo Srinath, Krishnan Klimont, Zbigniew Kuhn, Thomas Langner, Joakim Law, Kathy S. Marelle, Louis Massling, Andreas Oliviè, Dirk Jan Leo Onishi, Tatsuo Oshima, Naga Peng, Yiran Plummer, David A. Pozzoli, Luca Popovicheva, Olga Raut, Jean-Christophe Sand, Maria Saunders, Laura Schmale, Julia Sharma, Sangeeta Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skov, Henrik Taketani, Fumikazu Thomas, Manu Anna Traversi, Rita Tsigaridis, Kostas Tsyro, Svetlana 2022 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2997907 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022 eng eng EGU EC/H2020/727890 EC/H2020/860100 Norges forskningsråd: 315195 EC/H2020/689443 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). 2022, 22 5775-5828. urn:issn:1680-7316 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2997907 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022 cristin:2025633 Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no CC-BY 5775-5828 22 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) Journal article Peer reviewed 2022 ftcicerosfk https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022 2022-06-15T22:44:00Z While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, modeling short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles in the Arctic allows us to simulate near-term climate and health impacts for a sensitive, pristine region that is warming at 3 times the global rate. Atmospheric modeling is critical for understanding the long-range transport of pollutants to the Arctic, as well as the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere. Modeling is also used as a tool to determine SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models by assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over 4 years (2008–2009 and 2014–2015) conducted for the 2022 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship, and aircraft-based observations. The annual means, seasonal cycles, and 3-D distributions of SLCFs were evaluated using several metrics, such as absolute and percent model biases and correlation coefficients. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean (mmm) was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic and had the best overall performance. For the SLCFs with the greatest radiative impact (CH4, O3, BC, and SO), the mmm was within ±25 % of the measurements across the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, we recommend a multi-model ensemble be used for simulating climate and health impacts of SLCFs. Of the SLCFs in our study, model biases were smallest for CH4 and greatest for OA. For ... Article in Journal/Newspaper AMAP Arctic black carbon Global warming Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo (BIBSYS Brage) Arctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 22 9 5775 5828 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo (BIBSYS Brage) |
op_collection_id |
ftcicerosfk |
language |
English |
description |
While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, modeling short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles in the Arctic allows us to simulate near-term climate and health impacts for a sensitive, pristine region that is warming at 3 times the global rate. Atmospheric modeling is critical for understanding the long-range transport of pollutants to the Arctic, as well as the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere. Modeling is also used as a tool to determine SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models by assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over 4 years (2008–2009 and 2014–2015) conducted for the 2022 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship, and aircraft-based observations. The annual means, seasonal cycles, and 3-D distributions of SLCFs were evaluated using several metrics, such as absolute and percent model biases and correlation coefficients. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean (mmm) was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic and had the best overall performance. For the SLCFs with the greatest radiative impact (CH4, O3, BC, and SO), the mmm was within ±25 % of the measurements across the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, we recommend a multi-model ensemble be used for simulating climate and health impacts of SLCFs. Of the SLCFs in our study, model biases were smallest for CH4 and greatest for OA. For ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Whaley, Cynthia Mahmood, Rashed von Salzen, Knut Winter, Barbara Eckhardt, Sabine Arnold, Stephen R. Beagley, Stephen Becagli, Silvia Chien, Rong-You Christensen, Jesper Damani, Sujay Manish Dong, Xinyi Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos Evangeliou, Nikolaos Faluvegi, Gregory Flanner, Mark G. Fu, Joshua S. Gauss, Michael Giardi, Fabio Gong, Wanmin Hjorth, Jens Liengaard Huang, Lin Im, Ulas Kanaya, Yugo Srinath, Krishnan Klimont, Zbigniew Kuhn, Thomas Langner, Joakim Law, Kathy S. Marelle, Louis Massling, Andreas Oliviè, Dirk Jan Leo Onishi, Tatsuo Oshima, Naga Peng, Yiran Plummer, David A. Pozzoli, Luca Popovicheva, Olga Raut, Jean-Christophe Sand, Maria Saunders, Laura Schmale, Julia Sharma, Sangeeta Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skov, Henrik Taketani, Fumikazu Thomas, Manu Anna Traversi, Rita Tsigaridis, Kostas Tsyro, Svetlana |
spellingShingle |
Whaley, Cynthia Mahmood, Rashed von Salzen, Knut Winter, Barbara Eckhardt, Sabine Arnold, Stephen R. Beagley, Stephen Becagli, Silvia Chien, Rong-You Christensen, Jesper Damani, Sujay Manish Dong, Xinyi Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos Evangeliou, Nikolaos Faluvegi, Gregory Flanner, Mark G. Fu, Joshua S. Gauss, Michael Giardi, Fabio Gong, Wanmin Hjorth, Jens Liengaard Huang, Lin Im, Ulas Kanaya, Yugo Srinath, Krishnan Klimont, Zbigniew Kuhn, Thomas Langner, Joakim Law, Kathy S. Marelle, Louis Massling, Andreas Oliviè, Dirk Jan Leo Onishi, Tatsuo Oshima, Naga Peng, Yiran Plummer, David A. Pozzoli, Luca Popovicheva, Olga Raut, Jean-Christophe Sand, Maria Saunders, Laura Schmale, Julia Sharma, Sangeeta Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skov, Henrik Taketani, Fumikazu Thomas, Manu Anna Traversi, Rita Tsigaridis, Kostas Tsyro, Svetlana Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study |
author_facet |
Whaley, Cynthia Mahmood, Rashed von Salzen, Knut Winter, Barbara Eckhardt, Sabine Arnold, Stephen R. Beagley, Stephen Becagli, Silvia Chien, Rong-You Christensen, Jesper Damani, Sujay Manish Dong, Xinyi Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos Evangeliou, Nikolaos Faluvegi, Gregory Flanner, Mark G. Fu, Joshua S. Gauss, Michael Giardi, Fabio Gong, Wanmin Hjorth, Jens Liengaard Huang, Lin Im, Ulas Kanaya, Yugo Srinath, Krishnan Klimont, Zbigniew Kuhn, Thomas Langner, Joakim Law, Kathy S. Marelle, Louis Massling, Andreas Oliviè, Dirk Jan Leo Onishi, Tatsuo Oshima, Naga Peng, Yiran Plummer, David A. Pozzoli, Luca Popovicheva, Olga Raut, Jean-Christophe Sand, Maria Saunders, Laura Schmale, Julia Sharma, Sangeeta Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skov, Henrik Taketani, Fumikazu Thomas, Manu Anna Traversi, Rita Tsigaridis, Kostas Tsyro, Svetlana |
author_sort |
Whaley, Cynthia |
title |
Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study |
title_short |
Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study |
title_full |
Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study |
title_fullStr |
Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study |
title_sort |
model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the arctic monitoring and assessment programme: a multi-species, multi-model study |
publisher |
EGU |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2997907 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
AMAP Arctic black carbon Global warming |
genre_facet |
AMAP Arctic black carbon Global warming |
op_source |
5775-5828 22 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) |
op_relation |
EC/H2020/727890 EC/H2020/860100 Norges forskningsråd: 315195 EC/H2020/689443 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). 2022, 22 5775-5828. urn:issn:1680-7316 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2997907 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022 cristin:2025633 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-5775-2022 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
5775 |
op_container_end_page |
5828 |
_version_ |
1766360402950619136 |