Climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in Norway
Climate change is likely to affect agricultural productivity. In this study, a biophysical statistical model is used to analyze the relationship between yields of potatoes, barley, oats and wheat per decare, and temperature (growing degree days) and precipitation, for the period 1958–2001 at county...
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CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo
2004
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11250/192308 |
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ftcicerosfk:oai:pub.cicero.oslo.no:11250/192308 2024-05-19T07:45:59+00:00 Climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in Norway Torvanger, Asbjørn Twena, Michelle Romstad, Bård 2004 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11250/192308 eng eng CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo CICERO Working Paper CICERO Working Paper;2004:10 urn:issn:0504-452X http://hdl.handle.net/11250/192308 cristin:329400 Working paper 2004 ftcicerosfk 2024-04-24T00:15:54Z Climate change is likely to affect agricultural productivity. In this study, a biophysical statistical model is used to analyze the relationship between yields of potatoes, barley, oats and wheat per decare, and temperature (growing degree days) and precipitation, for the period 1958–2001 at county level in Norway. If a climate signal can be detected at county level this should be of interest for climate policy planners, agricultural authorities and farmers preparing for a warmer climate. We find that in 18 % of (the crop and county) cases there is a positive impact on yield from increased temperature. In the case of crops the effect is strongest for potatoes. Regionally, the correlations are strongest in Northern Norway, where temperature is likely to be more important as a limiting factor for crop growth than other regions of the country. The effect of increased precipitation is negative in 20 % of the cases, which could be due to excess soil moisture or reduced sun radiation associated with more cloud cover. Predictions based on the RegClim scenario for 2040 indicate that potato yields will increase by around 30% in Northern Norway, which amounts to about 9 million NOK annually. Report Northern Norway Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo (BIBSYS Brage) |
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Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo (BIBSYS Brage) |
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ftcicerosfk |
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English |
description |
Climate change is likely to affect agricultural productivity. In this study, a biophysical statistical model is used to analyze the relationship between yields of potatoes, barley, oats and wheat per decare, and temperature (growing degree days) and precipitation, for the period 1958–2001 at county level in Norway. If a climate signal can be detected at county level this should be of interest for climate policy planners, agricultural authorities and farmers preparing for a warmer climate. We find that in 18 % of (the crop and county) cases there is a positive impact on yield from increased temperature. In the case of crops the effect is strongest for potatoes. Regionally, the correlations are strongest in Northern Norway, where temperature is likely to be more important as a limiting factor for crop growth than other regions of the country. The effect of increased precipitation is negative in 20 % of the cases, which could be due to excess soil moisture or reduced sun radiation associated with more cloud cover. Predictions based on the RegClim scenario for 2040 indicate that potato yields will increase by around 30% in Northern Norway, which amounts to about 9 million NOK annually. |
format |
Report |
author |
Torvanger, Asbjørn Twena, Michelle Romstad, Bård |
spellingShingle |
Torvanger, Asbjørn Twena, Michelle Romstad, Bård Climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in Norway |
author_facet |
Torvanger, Asbjørn Twena, Michelle Romstad, Bård |
author_sort |
Torvanger, Asbjørn |
title |
Climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in Norway |
title_short |
Climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in Norway |
title_full |
Climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in Norway |
title_fullStr |
Climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in Norway |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in Norway |
title_sort |
climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in norway |
publisher |
CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo |
publishDate |
2004 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/192308 |
genre |
Northern Norway |
genre_facet |
Northern Norway |
op_relation |
CICERO Working Paper CICERO Working Paper;2004:10 urn:issn:0504-452X http://hdl.handle.net/11250/192308 cristin:329400 |
_version_ |
1799486112112050176 |