Differing roles of North Atlantic oceanic and atmospheric transports in the winter Eurasian Arctic sea-ice interannual-to-decadal variability

• Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
• Main Authors: Shi, Jiaqi, Luo, Binhe, Luo, Dehai, Yao, Yao, Gong, Tingting, Liu, Yimin
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Published: NATURE PORTFOLIO 2024
• Subjects: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION; MIDLATITUDE WEATHER; HEAT-TRANSPORT; TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE; AMPLIFICATION; TRENDS; IMPACT; DRIVEN; OSCILLATION; Arctic; Barents Sea; Greenland; East Greenland; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/184991; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00605-5

In recent decades, winter Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) has experienced a most prominent decline over Barents-Kara Seas (BKS). However, what regulates the time scale and spatial structure of the SIC variability over the Eurasian Arctic is unclear. Here, we find that the SIC variability over the Eurasian Arctic exhibits two major modes: decadal dipole mode with antiphase variation between the BKS and East Greenland (EG), and interannual monopole mode with in-phase variation between the BKS and EG. This decadal mode mainly results from interdecadal changes in ocean heat transports (OHTs) through Barents Sea Opening (BSO) and EG, lagging the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation by 7-16 years. The positive SIC dipole mode with a decrease over the BKS and an increase over the EG is also tied to the negative Arctic Oscillation comprised of Ural blocking and the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, the SIC loss of the interannual monopole mode mainly stems from the positive Arctic dipole comprised of Ural blocking and positive NAO through interannual changes in the BSO OHT and atmospheric moisture or heat transport. We further highlight that interannual atmospheric transports and BSO OHT associated with the Arctic dipole contribute to similar to 66% and similar to 34% of the interannual variability of the Eurasian Arctic SIC during 1960-2017, respectively. On decadal timescales, the relative contributions of atmospheric transports associated with Arctic Oscillation and OHT to the Eurasian Arctic SIC variability are similar to 19% and similar to 81%, respectively. Especially, the contribution of decadal atmospheric transports is significantly intensified during 2000-2017.