Optimally growing initial error for predicting the sudden shift in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and its application to targeted observation
Initial errors critically affect the performance of short-term ocean predictions. To investigate the effects of initial errors on the 30-day prediction of the sudden shift in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport through the Drake Passage (DP), the optimally growing initial error (OGIE)...
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SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
2022
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ftchinacasciocas:oai:ir.qdio.ac.cn:337002/179958 2023-05-15T13:50:10+02:00 Optimally growing initial error for predicting the sudden shift in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and its application to targeted observation Zhou, Li Zhang, Kun Wang, Qiang Mu, Mu 2022-11-01 http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/179958 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-022-01531-x 英语 eng SPRINGER HEIDELBERG OCEAN DYNAMICS http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/179958 doi:10.1007/s10236-022-01531-x The Antarctic Circumpolar Current Initial errors CNOP Targeted observation Ocean prediction Oceanography NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATION OCEAN CIRCULATION MODEL KUROSHIO LARGE MEANDER DRAKE PASSAGE ADAPTIVE OBSERVATION SENSITIVE AREAS WIND STRESS SEA PREDICTABILITY ADJOINT 期刊论文 2022 ftchinacasciocas https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-022-01531-x 2022-12-14T16:02:16Z Initial errors critically affect the performance of short-term ocean predictions. To investigate the effects of initial errors on the 30-day prediction of the sudden shift in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport through the Drake Passage (DP), the optimally growing initial error (OGIE) is explored based on the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP) approach and an eddy-permitting Regional Ocean Modeling System. In the four selected cases, the OGIEs are primarily located under 2000 m in the middle DP of (57 degrees S-62 degrees S, 73 degrees W-64 degrees W). All OGIEs undergo localized evolutions and cause significant transport prediction errors of approximately 40.0 Sv by exciting anomalous dipolar circulations. The vorticity budget analysis indicates linear advection contributes to error vorticity evolutions, whereas nonlinear advection and ageostrophic divergence show damping effects. Moreover, eastward motions exerted by linear advection and westward motions exerted by nonlinear advection together maintain the localized vorticity evolutions. Finally, targeted observation is applied in the OGIE-determined sensitive areas. Observing system simulation experiments suggest that improving initial condition qualities in the OGIE-determined sensitive areas (especially in the deep layers) can effectively enhance the ACC transport predictions. This study reveals the spatial structures and growth mechanism of the OGIEs related to the short-term ACC transport prediction and provides scientific guidance on designing observing networks in the DP. Report Antarc* Antarctic Drake Passage Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences: IOCAS-IR Antarctic Drake Passage The Antarctic Ocean Dynamics 72 11-12 785 800 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences: IOCAS-IR |
op_collection_id |
ftchinacasciocas |
language |
English |
topic |
The Antarctic Circumpolar Current Initial errors CNOP Targeted observation Ocean prediction Oceanography NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATION OCEAN CIRCULATION MODEL KUROSHIO LARGE MEANDER DRAKE PASSAGE ADAPTIVE OBSERVATION SENSITIVE AREAS WIND STRESS SEA PREDICTABILITY ADJOINT |
spellingShingle |
The Antarctic Circumpolar Current Initial errors CNOP Targeted observation Ocean prediction Oceanography NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATION OCEAN CIRCULATION MODEL KUROSHIO LARGE MEANDER DRAKE PASSAGE ADAPTIVE OBSERVATION SENSITIVE AREAS WIND STRESS SEA PREDICTABILITY ADJOINT Zhou, Li Zhang, Kun Wang, Qiang Mu, Mu Optimally growing initial error for predicting the sudden shift in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and its application to targeted observation |
topic_facet |
The Antarctic Circumpolar Current Initial errors CNOP Targeted observation Ocean prediction Oceanography NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATION OCEAN CIRCULATION MODEL KUROSHIO LARGE MEANDER DRAKE PASSAGE ADAPTIVE OBSERVATION SENSITIVE AREAS WIND STRESS SEA PREDICTABILITY ADJOINT |
description |
Initial errors critically affect the performance of short-term ocean predictions. To investigate the effects of initial errors on the 30-day prediction of the sudden shift in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport through the Drake Passage (DP), the optimally growing initial error (OGIE) is explored based on the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP) approach and an eddy-permitting Regional Ocean Modeling System. In the four selected cases, the OGIEs are primarily located under 2000 m in the middle DP of (57 degrees S-62 degrees S, 73 degrees W-64 degrees W). All OGIEs undergo localized evolutions and cause significant transport prediction errors of approximately 40.0 Sv by exciting anomalous dipolar circulations. The vorticity budget analysis indicates linear advection contributes to error vorticity evolutions, whereas nonlinear advection and ageostrophic divergence show damping effects. Moreover, eastward motions exerted by linear advection and westward motions exerted by nonlinear advection together maintain the localized vorticity evolutions. Finally, targeted observation is applied in the OGIE-determined sensitive areas. Observing system simulation experiments suggest that improving initial condition qualities in the OGIE-determined sensitive areas (especially in the deep layers) can effectively enhance the ACC transport predictions. This study reveals the spatial structures and growth mechanism of the OGIEs related to the short-term ACC transport prediction and provides scientific guidance on designing observing networks in the DP. |
format |
Report |
author |
Zhou, Li Zhang, Kun Wang, Qiang Mu, Mu |
author_facet |
Zhou, Li Zhang, Kun Wang, Qiang Mu, Mu |
author_sort |
Zhou, Li |
title |
Optimally growing initial error for predicting the sudden shift in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and its application to targeted observation |
title_short |
Optimally growing initial error for predicting the sudden shift in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and its application to targeted observation |
title_full |
Optimally growing initial error for predicting the sudden shift in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and its application to targeted observation |
title_fullStr |
Optimally growing initial error for predicting the sudden shift in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and its application to targeted observation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Optimally growing initial error for predicting the sudden shift in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and its application to targeted observation |
title_sort |
optimally growing initial error for predicting the sudden shift in the antarctic circumpolar current transport and its application to targeted observation |
publisher |
SPRINGER HEIDELBERG |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/179958 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-022-01531-x |
geographic |
Antarctic Drake Passage The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Drake Passage The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Drake Passage |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Drake Passage |
op_relation |
OCEAN DYNAMICS http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/179958 doi:10.1007/s10236-022-01531-x |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-022-01531-x |
container_title |
Ocean Dynamics |
container_volume |
72 |
container_issue |
11-12 |
container_start_page |
785 |
op_container_end_page |
800 |
_version_ |
1766253140757184512 |