Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River
Understanding the driving factors for precipitation extremes matters for adaptation and mitigation measures against the changing hydrometeorological hazards in Yangtze River basin, a habitable area that provides water resources for domestic, farming, and industrial needs. However, the region is natu...
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ftchinacasciocas:oai:ir.qdio.ac.cn:337002/169382 2023-05-15T18:18:45+02:00 Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Nanding, Nergui Chen, Yang Wu, Huan Dong, Buwen Tian, Fangxing Lott, Fraser C. Tett, Simon F. B. Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel Chen, Yiheng Huang, Zhijun Yan, Yan Li, Delei Li, Rouke Wang, Xuan Fan, Xuewei 2020-11-25 http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/169382 https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2020.603061 英语 eng FRONTIERS MEDIA SA FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/169382 doi:10.3389/fenvs.2020.603061 precipitation extreme events climate change Yangtze (Changjiang) catchment attribution studies anthropogenic influence Environmental Sciences & Ecology Environmental Sciences ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ATTRIBUTION CLIMATE SYSTEM 期刊论文 2020 ftchinacasciocas https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2020.603061 2022-06-27T05:43:20Z Understanding the driving factors for precipitation extremes matters for adaptation and mitigation measures against the changing hydrometeorological hazards in Yangtze River basin, a habitable area that provides water resources for domestic, farming, and industrial needs. However, the region is naturally subject to major floods linked to monsoonal heavy precipitation during May-September. This study aims to quantify anthropogenic influences on the changing risk of 2-week-long precipitation extremes such as the July 2019 extreme cases, as well as events of shorter durations, over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River basin (MLYRB). Precipitation extremes with different durations ranging from 1-day to 14-days maximum precipitation accumulations are investigated. Gridded daily precipitations based on nearly 2,400 meteorological stations across China are used to define maximum accumulated precipitation extremes over the MLYRB in July during 1961-2019. Attribution analysis is conducted by using the Met Office HadGEM3-GA6 modeling system, which comprises two sets of 525-member ensembles for 2019. One is forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), sea-ice and all forcings, and the other is forced with preindustrialized SSTs and natural forcings only. The risk ratio between the exceedance probabilities estimated from all-forcing and natural-forcing simulations is calculated to quantify the anthropogenic contribution to the changing risks of the July 2019-like precipitation extremes. The results reveal that anthropogenic warming has reduced the likelihood of 2019-like 14-days heavy precipitation over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River by 20%, but increased that of 2-days extremes by 30%. Report Sea ice Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences: IOCAS-IR Frontiers in Environmental Science 8 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences: IOCAS-IR |
op_collection_id |
ftchinacasciocas |
language |
English |
topic |
precipitation extreme events climate change Yangtze (Changjiang) catchment attribution studies anthropogenic influence Environmental Sciences & Ecology Environmental Sciences ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ATTRIBUTION CLIMATE SYSTEM |
spellingShingle |
precipitation extreme events climate change Yangtze (Changjiang) catchment attribution studies anthropogenic influence Environmental Sciences & Ecology Environmental Sciences ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ATTRIBUTION CLIMATE SYSTEM Nanding, Nergui Chen, Yang Wu, Huan Dong, Buwen Tian, Fangxing Lott, Fraser C. Tett, Simon F. B. Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel Chen, Yiheng Huang, Zhijun Yan, Yan Li, Delei Li, Rouke Wang, Xuan Fan, Xuewei Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River |
topic_facet |
precipitation extreme events climate change Yangtze (Changjiang) catchment attribution studies anthropogenic influence Environmental Sciences & Ecology Environmental Sciences ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ATTRIBUTION CLIMATE SYSTEM |
description |
Understanding the driving factors for precipitation extremes matters for adaptation and mitigation measures against the changing hydrometeorological hazards in Yangtze River basin, a habitable area that provides water resources for domestic, farming, and industrial needs. However, the region is naturally subject to major floods linked to monsoonal heavy precipitation during May-September. This study aims to quantify anthropogenic influences on the changing risk of 2-week-long precipitation extremes such as the July 2019 extreme cases, as well as events of shorter durations, over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River basin (MLYRB). Precipitation extremes with different durations ranging from 1-day to 14-days maximum precipitation accumulations are investigated. Gridded daily precipitations based on nearly 2,400 meteorological stations across China are used to define maximum accumulated precipitation extremes over the MLYRB in July during 1961-2019. Attribution analysis is conducted by using the Met Office HadGEM3-GA6 modeling system, which comprises two sets of 525-member ensembles for 2019. One is forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), sea-ice and all forcings, and the other is forced with preindustrialized SSTs and natural forcings only. The risk ratio between the exceedance probabilities estimated from all-forcing and natural-forcing simulations is calculated to quantify the anthropogenic contribution to the changing risks of the July 2019-like precipitation extremes. The results reveal that anthropogenic warming has reduced the likelihood of 2019-like 14-days heavy precipitation over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River by 20%, but increased that of 2-days extremes by 30%. |
format |
Report |
author |
Nanding, Nergui Chen, Yang Wu, Huan Dong, Buwen Tian, Fangxing Lott, Fraser C. Tett, Simon F. B. Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel Chen, Yiheng Huang, Zhijun Yan, Yan Li, Delei Li, Rouke Wang, Xuan Fan, Xuewei |
author_facet |
Nanding, Nergui Chen, Yang Wu, Huan Dong, Buwen Tian, Fangxing Lott, Fraser C. Tett, Simon F. B. Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel Chen, Yiheng Huang, Zhijun Yan, Yan Li, Delei Li, Rouke Wang, Xuan Fan, Xuewei |
author_sort |
Nanding, Nergui |
title |
Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River |
title_short |
Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River |
title_full |
Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River |
title_fullStr |
Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River |
title_full_unstemmed |
Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River |
title_sort |
anthropogenic influences on 2019 july precipitation extremes over the mid-lower reaches of the yangtze river |
publisher |
FRONTIERS MEDIA SA |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/169382 https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2020.603061 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/169382 doi:10.3389/fenvs.2020.603061 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2020.603061 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Environmental Science |
container_volume |
8 |
_version_ |
1766195443003293696 |