Modelling spatiotemporal trends in range shifts of marine commercial fish species driven by climate change surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula

• Published in: Science of The Total Environment
• Main Authors: Zhu, Yugui, Zheng, Shiyao, Reygondeau, Gabriel, Zhang, Zhixin, Chu, Jiansong, Hong, Xuguang, Wang, Yunfeng, Cheung, William W. L.
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Published: ELSEVIER 2020
• Subjects: Climate change; Species richness; Abundance and redistribution; Range shift; Extinction and invasion; DBEM; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Environmental Sciences; MACKEREL ICEFISH; OXYGEN LIMITATION; GLOBAL OCEAN; IMPACTS; FISHERIES; SCALE; TEMPERATURE; KRILL; SIZE; UNCERTAINTIES; Antarctic; Antarctic Peninsula; Southern Ocean; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Icefish
• Online Access: http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/168071; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140258

In recent decades, the relationships between species distributional shifts and climate change have been investigated at various geographic scales, yet there is still a gap in understanding the impacts of climate change on marine commercial fish species surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula. The dynamic bioclimate envelope model (DBEM) is a mechanistic model that encompass species distribution model and population dynamic model approaches to project the spatiotemporal change of marine commercial fish species driven by various climate change scenarios in the Southern Ocean. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal changes of marine commercial fish species surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and a low emissions scenario (REP2.6) from 1970 W 2060 following three different Earth System Models (ESMs), namely, the GFDL-ESM 2G, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MPI-ESM-MR. Results reveal that: i) The general latitudinal gradient patterns in species richness shifts poleward associated with a global abundance decrease ii) The Spp. richness in Eastern Antarctic Peninsula (EAP) is higher than in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) at the same latitude (>6.5 degrees S latitude). iii) The reasons are that the krill-dependent predators in WAP could face a higher risk of depletion than that in EAP clue to ocean warming and anthropogenic activities. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.