On the Response of the Aleutian Low to Greenhouse Warming
Past and future changes in the Aleutian low are investigated by using observation-based sea level pressure (SLP) datasets and CMIP5 models. It is found that the Aleutian low intensity, measured by the North Pacific Index (NPI), has significantly strengthened during the twentieth century, with the ob...
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ftchinacasciocas:oai:ir.qdio.ac.cn:337002/136869 2023-05-15T13:14:50+02:00 On the Response of the Aleutian Low to Greenhouse Warming Gan, Bolan Wu, Lixin Jia, Fan Li, Shujun Cai, Wenju Nakamura, Hisashi Alexander, Michael A. Miller, Arthur J. 2017-05-01 http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/136869 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0789.1 英语 eng JOURNAL OF CLIMATE Gan, Bolan,Wu, Lixin,Jia, Fan,et al. On the Response of the Aleutian Low to Greenhouse Warming[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(10):3907-3925. http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/136869 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0789.1 Article 期刊论文 2017 ftchinacasciocas https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0789.1 2022-06-27T05:38:04Z Past and future changes in the Aleutian low are investigated by using observation-based sea level pressure (SLP) datasets and CMIP5 models. It is found that the Aleutian low intensity, measured by the North Pacific Index (NPI), has significantly strengthened during the twentieth century, with the observed centennial trend double the modeled counterpart for the multimodel average of historical simulations, suggesting compound signals of anthropogenic warming and natural variability. As climate warms under the strongest future warming scenario, the climatological-mean Aleutian low will continue to intensify and expand northward, as manifested in the significant decrease (-1.3 hPa) of the multimodel-averaged NPI, which is 1.6 times its unforced internal variability, and the increase in the central area of low pressure (SLP < 999.0 hPa), which expands about 7 times that in the twentieth century. A suite of idealized experiments further demonstrates that the deepening of the Aleutian low can be driven by an El Nino-like warming of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), with a reduction in the climatological-mean zonal SST gradient, which overshadows the dampening effect of a weakened wintertime land-ocean thermal contrast on the Aleutian low change in a warmer climate. While the projected deepening of Aleutian low on multimodel average is robust, individual model portrayals vary primarily in magnitude. Intermodel difference in surface warming amplitude over the Asian continent, which is found to explain about 31% of the variance of the NPI changes across models, has a greater contribution than that in the spatial pattern of tropical Pacific SST warming (which explains about 23%) to model uncertainty in the projection of Aleutian low intensity. Article in Journal/Newspaper aleutian low Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences: IOCAS-IR Pacific Journal of Climate 30 10 3907 3925 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences: IOCAS-IR |
op_collection_id |
ftchinacasciocas |
language |
English |
description |
Past and future changes in the Aleutian low are investigated by using observation-based sea level pressure (SLP) datasets and CMIP5 models. It is found that the Aleutian low intensity, measured by the North Pacific Index (NPI), has significantly strengthened during the twentieth century, with the observed centennial trend double the modeled counterpart for the multimodel average of historical simulations, suggesting compound signals of anthropogenic warming and natural variability. As climate warms under the strongest future warming scenario, the climatological-mean Aleutian low will continue to intensify and expand northward, as manifested in the significant decrease (-1.3 hPa) of the multimodel-averaged NPI, which is 1.6 times its unforced internal variability, and the increase in the central area of low pressure (SLP < 999.0 hPa), which expands about 7 times that in the twentieth century. A suite of idealized experiments further demonstrates that the deepening of the Aleutian low can be driven by an El Nino-like warming of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), with a reduction in the climatological-mean zonal SST gradient, which overshadows the dampening effect of a weakened wintertime land-ocean thermal contrast on the Aleutian low change in a warmer climate. While the projected deepening of Aleutian low on multimodel average is robust, individual model portrayals vary primarily in magnitude. Intermodel difference in surface warming amplitude over the Asian continent, which is found to explain about 31% of the variance of the NPI changes across models, has a greater contribution than that in the spatial pattern of tropical Pacific SST warming (which explains about 23%) to model uncertainty in the projection of Aleutian low intensity. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gan, Bolan Wu, Lixin Jia, Fan Li, Shujun Cai, Wenju Nakamura, Hisashi Alexander, Michael A. Miller, Arthur J. |
spellingShingle |
Gan, Bolan Wu, Lixin Jia, Fan Li, Shujun Cai, Wenju Nakamura, Hisashi Alexander, Michael A. Miller, Arthur J. On the Response of the Aleutian Low to Greenhouse Warming |
author_facet |
Gan, Bolan Wu, Lixin Jia, Fan Li, Shujun Cai, Wenju Nakamura, Hisashi Alexander, Michael A. Miller, Arthur J. |
author_sort |
Gan, Bolan |
title |
On the Response of the Aleutian Low to Greenhouse Warming |
title_short |
On the Response of the Aleutian Low to Greenhouse Warming |
title_full |
On the Response of the Aleutian Low to Greenhouse Warming |
title_fullStr |
On the Response of the Aleutian Low to Greenhouse Warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the Response of the Aleutian Low to Greenhouse Warming |
title_sort |
on the response of the aleutian low to greenhouse warming |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/136869 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0789.1 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
aleutian low |
genre_facet |
aleutian low |
op_relation |
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE Gan, Bolan,Wu, Lixin,Jia, Fan,et al. On the Response of the Aleutian Low to Greenhouse Warming[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(10):3907-3925. http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/136869 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0789.1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0789.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
3907 |
op_container_end_page |
3925 |
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1766265681901256704 |