Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline
Arctic sea ice extent has been declining in recent decades. There is ongoing debate on the contribution of natural internal variability to recent and future Arctic sea ice changes. In this study, we contrast the trends in the forced and unforced simulations of carefully selected global climate model...
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ftchinacadscnssc:oai:ir.nssc.ac.cn:122/5445 2023-05-15T14:36:26+02:00 Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline Song Mirong Wei Lixin Wang Zhenzhan Song, MR (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. 2016 http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/5445 英语 eng ACTA OCEANOLOGICA SINICA http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/5445 cn.org.cspace.api.content.CopyrightPolicy@5f9f87 Internal Variability Sea Ice Decline External Forcing 期刊论文 2016 ftchinacadscnssc 2019-09-21T06:44:15Z Arctic sea ice extent has been declining in recent decades. There is ongoing debate on the contribution of natural internal variability to recent and future Arctic sea ice changes. In this study, we contrast the trends in the forced and unforced simulations of carefully selected global climate models with the extended observed Arctic sea ice records. The results suggest that the natural variability explains no more than 42.3% of the observed September sea ice extent trend during 35 a (1979-2013) satellite observations, which is comparable to the results of the observed sea ice record extended back to 1953 (61 a, less than 48.5% natural variability). This reinforces the evidence that anthropogenic forcing plays a substantial role in the observed decline of September Arctic sea ice in recent decades. The magnitude of both positive and negative trends induced by the natural variability in the unforced simulations is slightly enlarged in the context of increasing greenhouse gases in the 21st century. However, the ratio between the realizations of positive and negative trends change has remained steady, which enforces the standpoint that external forcing will remain the principal determiner of the decreasing Arctic sea ice extent trend in the future. Report Arctic Sea ice National Space Science Center: NSSC OpenIR (Chinese Academy of Sciences) Arctic |
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Open Polar |
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National Space Science Center: NSSC OpenIR (Chinese Academy of Sciences) |
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ftchinacadscnssc |
language |
English |
topic |
Internal Variability Sea Ice Decline External Forcing |
spellingShingle |
Internal Variability Sea Ice Decline External Forcing Song Mirong Wei Lixin Wang Zhenzhan Song, MR (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline |
topic_facet |
Internal Variability Sea Ice Decline External Forcing |
description |
Arctic sea ice extent has been declining in recent decades. There is ongoing debate on the contribution of natural internal variability to recent and future Arctic sea ice changes. In this study, we contrast the trends in the forced and unforced simulations of carefully selected global climate models with the extended observed Arctic sea ice records. The results suggest that the natural variability explains no more than 42.3% of the observed September sea ice extent trend during 35 a (1979-2013) satellite observations, which is comparable to the results of the observed sea ice record extended back to 1953 (61 a, less than 48.5% natural variability). This reinforces the evidence that anthropogenic forcing plays a substantial role in the observed decline of September Arctic sea ice in recent decades. The magnitude of both positive and negative trends induced by the natural variability in the unforced simulations is slightly enlarged in the context of increasing greenhouse gases in the 21st century. However, the ratio between the realizations of positive and negative trends change has remained steady, which enforces the standpoint that external forcing will remain the principal determiner of the decreasing Arctic sea ice extent trend in the future. |
format |
Report |
author |
Song Mirong Wei Lixin Wang Zhenzhan Song, MR (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. |
author_facet |
Song Mirong Wei Lixin Wang Zhenzhan Song, MR (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. |
author_sort |
Song Mirong |
title |
Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline |
title_short |
Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline |
title_full |
Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline |
title_fullStr |
Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline |
title_sort |
quantifying the contribution of natural variability to september arctic sea ice decline |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/5445 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
ACTA OCEANOLOGICA SINICA http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/5445 |
op_rights |
cn.org.cspace.api.content.CopyrightPolicy@5f9f87 |
_version_ |
1766309052076261376 |