Cost–benefit analysis of a trans-arctic alternative route to the Suez canal: a method based on high-fidelity ship performance, weather, and ice forecast models
Climate change in recent years has produced viable shipping routes in the Arctic. However, critical uncertainties related to maritime operations in the Arctic make it difficult to predict ship speeds in ice and, thus, the voyage time and fuel costs. Cost–benefit analysis of alternative Arctic routes...
Published in: | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11040711 https://research.chalmers.se/en/publication/a3cb7161-a33e-4377-a73b-a15030c8d8ed |
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ftchalmersuniv:oai:research.chalmers.se:535748 2023-07-23T04:16:52+02:00 Cost–benefit analysis of a trans-arctic alternative route to the Suez canal: a method based on high-fidelity ship performance, weather, and ice forecast models Li, Zhiyuan Ding, Li Huang, Luofeng Ringsberg, Jonas Gong, Hui Fournier, Nicolas Chuang, Zhenju 2023 text https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11040711 https://research.chalmers.se/en/publication/a3cb7161-a33e-4377-a73b-a15030c8d8ed unknown http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse11040711 https://research.chalmers.se/en/publication/a3cb7161-a33e-4377-a73b-a15030c8d8ed Transport Systems and Logistics Other Environmental Engineering Energy Systems icebreaker tariff cost–benefit analysis simulation Northern Sea Route ice resistance Weather and Ice Forecast Models arctic shipping 2023 ftchalmersuniv https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11040711 2023-07-05T22:36:00Z Climate change in recent years has produced viable shipping routes in the Arctic. However, critical uncertainties related to maritime operations in the Arctic make it difficult to predict ship speeds in ice and, thus, the voyage time and fuel costs. Cost–benefit analysis of alternative Arctic routes based on accurate environmental condition modeling is required. In this context, this paper presents a holistic approach that considers the major voyage-related costs of a trans-Arctic route as an alternative to the conventional routes via the Suez Canal Route (SCR) for existing merchant ships. This tool is based on high-fidelity models of ship performance, metocean forecasting, and a voyage optimization algorithm. Case studies are performed based on a general cargo vessel in operation to quantify realistic expenses inclusive of all the major operational, fuel, and voyage costs of the specific voyages. A comparison is made between the total costs of the trans-Arctic route and SCR for different seasons, which proves the economic feasibility of the trans-Arctic route. Overall, this work can provide valuable insights to help policymakers as well as shipbuilders, owners, and operators to assess the potential cost-effectiveness and sustainability of future Arctic shipping, thereby better developing future strategies. Other/Unknown Material Arctic Climate change Icebreaker Northern Sea Route Chalmers University of Technology: Chalmers research Arctic Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 11 4 711 |
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Open Polar |
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Chalmers University of Technology: Chalmers research |
op_collection_id |
ftchalmersuniv |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Transport Systems and Logistics Other Environmental Engineering Energy Systems icebreaker tariff cost–benefit analysis simulation Northern Sea Route ice resistance Weather and Ice Forecast Models arctic shipping |
spellingShingle |
Transport Systems and Logistics Other Environmental Engineering Energy Systems icebreaker tariff cost–benefit analysis simulation Northern Sea Route ice resistance Weather and Ice Forecast Models arctic shipping Li, Zhiyuan Ding, Li Huang, Luofeng Ringsberg, Jonas Gong, Hui Fournier, Nicolas Chuang, Zhenju Cost–benefit analysis of a trans-arctic alternative route to the Suez canal: a method based on high-fidelity ship performance, weather, and ice forecast models |
topic_facet |
Transport Systems and Logistics Other Environmental Engineering Energy Systems icebreaker tariff cost–benefit analysis simulation Northern Sea Route ice resistance Weather and Ice Forecast Models arctic shipping |
description |
Climate change in recent years has produced viable shipping routes in the Arctic. However, critical uncertainties related to maritime operations in the Arctic make it difficult to predict ship speeds in ice and, thus, the voyage time and fuel costs. Cost–benefit analysis of alternative Arctic routes based on accurate environmental condition modeling is required. In this context, this paper presents a holistic approach that considers the major voyage-related costs of a trans-Arctic route as an alternative to the conventional routes via the Suez Canal Route (SCR) for existing merchant ships. This tool is based on high-fidelity models of ship performance, metocean forecasting, and a voyage optimization algorithm. Case studies are performed based on a general cargo vessel in operation to quantify realistic expenses inclusive of all the major operational, fuel, and voyage costs of the specific voyages. A comparison is made between the total costs of the trans-Arctic route and SCR for different seasons, which proves the economic feasibility of the trans-Arctic route. Overall, this work can provide valuable insights to help policymakers as well as shipbuilders, owners, and operators to assess the potential cost-effectiveness and sustainability of future Arctic shipping, thereby better developing future strategies. |
author |
Li, Zhiyuan Ding, Li Huang, Luofeng Ringsberg, Jonas Gong, Hui Fournier, Nicolas Chuang, Zhenju |
author_facet |
Li, Zhiyuan Ding, Li Huang, Luofeng Ringsberg, Jonas Gong, Hui Fournier, Nicolas Chuang, Zhenju |
author_sort |
Li, Zhiyuan |
title |
Cost–benefit analysis of a trans-arctic alternative route to the Suez canal: a method based on high-fidelity ship performance, weather, and ice forecast models |
title_short |
Cost–benefit analysis of a trans-arctic alternative route to the Suez canal: a method based on high-fidelity ship performance, weather, and ice forecast models |
title_full |
Cost–benefit analysis of a trans-arctic alternative route to the Suez canal: a method based on high-fidelity ship performance, weather, and ice forecast models |
title_fullStr |
Cost–benefit analysis of a trans-arctic alternative route to the Suez canal: a method based on high-fidelity ship performance, weather, and ice forecast models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Cost–benefit analysis of a trans-arctic alternative route to the Suez canal: a method based on high-fidelity ship performance, weather, and ice forecast models |
title_sort |
cost–benefit analysis of a trans-arctic alternative route to the suez canal: a method based on high-fidelity ship performance, weather, and ice forecast models |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11040711 https://research.chalmers.se/en/publication/a3cb7161-a33e-4377-a73b-a15030c8d8ed |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Icebreaker Northern Sea Route |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Icebreaker Northern Sea Route |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse11040711 https://research.chalmers.se/en/publication/a3cb7161-a33e-4377-a73b-a15030c8d8ed |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11040711 |
container_title |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
711 |
_version_ |
1772177987051978752 |