Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE
We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Language: | English |
Published: |
2006
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://cds.cern.ch/record/989969 |
id |
ftcern:oai:cds.cern.ch:989969 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftcern:oai:cds.cern.ch:989969 2023-05-15T18:17:59+02:00 Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE Hansen, J Aleinov, I Bauer, S Baum, E Cairns, B Canuto, V Chandler, M Cheng, Y Cohen, A Faluvegi, G Fleming, E Friend, A Genio, A D Hall, T Jackman, C Jonas, J Kelley, M Kharecha, P Kiang, N Y Koch, D Labow, G Lacis, A Lerner, J Lo, K Menon, S Miller, R Nazarenko, L Novakov, T Oinas, V Perlwitz, J Rind, D Romanou, A Ruedy, R Russell, G Sato, M Schmidt, G A Schmunk, R Shindell, D Stone, P Streets, D Sun, S Tausnev, N Thresher, D Unger, N Yao, M Zhang, S 2006-10-16 http://cds.cern.ch/record/989969 eng eng http://cds.cern.ch/record/989969 physics/0610109 oai:cds.cern.ch:989969 Other Fields of Physics 2006 ftcern 2018-07-28T08:33:44Z We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880-2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. The greatest uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds. We present evidence that the apparent model-observation discrepancy after the 1883 Krakatau eruption is due at least in part to deficiencies in observational analyses, as the model results sampled at locations of meteorological stations are in good agreement with observations. Other/Unknown Material Sea ice CERN Document Server (CDS) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
CERN Document Server (CDS) |
op_collection_id |
ftcern |
language |
English |
topic |
Other Fields of Physics |
spellingShingle |
Other Fields of Physics Hansen, J Aleinov, I Bauer, S Baum, E Cairns, B Canuto, V Chandler, M Cheng, Y Cohen, A Faluvegi, G Fleming, E Friend, A Genio, A D Hall, T Jackman, C Jonas, J Kelley, M Kharecha, P Kiang, N Y Koch, D Labow, G Lacis, A Lerner, J Lo, K Menon, S Miller, R Nazarenko, L Novakov, T Oinas, V Perlwitz, J Rind, D Romanou, A Ruedy, R Russell, G Sato, M Schmidt, G A Schmunk, R Shindell, D Stone, P Streets, D Sun, S Tausnev, N Thresher, D Unger, N Yao, M Zhang, S Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE |
topic_facet |
Other Fields of Physics |
description |
We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880-2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. The greatest uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds. We present evidence that the apparent model-observation discrepancy after the 1883 Krakatau eruption is due at least in part to deficiencies in observational analyses, as the model results sampled at locations of meteorological stations are in good agreement with observations. |
author |
Hansen, J Aleinov, I Bauer, S Baum, E Cairns, B Canuto, V Chandler, M Cheng, Y Cohen, A Faluvegi, G Fleming, E Friend, A Genio, A D Hall, T Jackman, C Jonas, J Kelley, M Kharecha, P Kiang, N Y Koch, D Labow, G Lacis, A Lerner, J Lo, K Menon, S Miller, R Nazarenko, L Novakov, T Oinas, V Perlwitz, J Rind, D Romanou, A Ruedy, R Russell, G Sato, M Schmidt, G A Schmunk, R Shindell, D Stone, P Streets, D Sun, S Tausnev, N Thresher, D Unger, N Yao, M Zhang, S |
author_facet |
Hansen, J Aleinov, I Bauer, S Baum, E Cairns, B Canuto, V Chandler, M Cheng, Y Cohen, A Faluvegi, G Fleming, E Friend, A Genio, A D Hall, T Jackman, C Jonas, J Kelley, M Kharecha, P Kiang, N Y Koch, D Labow, G Lacis, A Lerner, J Lo, K Menon, S Miller, R Nazarenko, L Novakov, T Oinas, V Perlwitz, J Rind, D Romanou, A Ruedy, R Russell, G Sato, M Schmidt, G A Schmunk, R Shindell, D Stone, P Streets, D Sun, S Tausnev, N Thresher, D Unger, N Yao, M Zhang, S |
author_sort |
Hansen, J |
title |
Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE |
title_short |
Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE |
title_full |
Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE |
title_fullStr |
Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE |
title_sort |
climate simulations for 1880-2003 with giss modele |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
http://cds.cern.ch/record/989969 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://cds.cern.ch/record/989969 physics/0610109 oai:cds.cern.ch:989969 |
_version_ |
1766193835192352768 |