Changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is small probability that the number of cyclones has increased in...
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ftcern:oai:cds.cern.ch:1017326 2023-05-15T17:28:21+02:00 Changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones Briggs, W M 2007-02-15 http://cds.cern.ch/record/1017326 eng eng http://cds.cern.ch/record/1017326 physics/0702131 oai:cds.cern.ch:1017326 Other Fields of Physics 2007 ftcern 2018-07-28T08:46:25Z Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is small probability that the number of cyclones has increased in the past thirty years. The rate at which these storms become hurricanes appears to be constant. The rate at which hurricanes evolve into category 4 and higher major storms does appear to have increased. We also investigate storm intensity by measuring the distribution of individual storm lifetime in days, storm track length, and Emanuel's power dissiptation index. We find little evidence that, overall, the mean of the distribution of individual storm intensity is changing through time, but the variability of the distribution has increased. The cold tongue index and the North Atlantic oscillation index were found to be strongly associated with storm quality in the Western, and to a smaller extent, the Eastern Pacific oceans. The North Atlantic oscillation index was strongly associated with the increase in the rate of strong storms evolving. Other/Unknown Material North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation CERN Document Server (CDS) Indian Pacific |
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Open Polar |
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CERN Document Server (CDS) |
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ftcern |
language |
English |
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Other Fields of Physics |
spellingShingle |
Other Fields of Physics Briggs, W M Changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones |
topic_facet |
Other Fields of Physics |
description |
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is small probability that the number of cyclones has increased in the past thirty years. The rate at which these storms become hurricanes appears to be constant. The rate at which hurricanes evolve into category 4 and higher major storms does appear to have increased. We also investigate storm intensity by measuring the distribution of individual storm lifetime in days, storm track length, and Emanuel's power dissiptation index. We find little evidence that, overall, the mean of the distribution of individual storm intensity is changing through time, but the variability of the distribution has increased. The cold tongue index and the North Atlantic oscillation index were found to be strongly associated with storm quality in the Western, and to a smaller extent, the Eastern Pacific oceans. The North Atlantic oscillation index was strongly associated with the increase in the rate of strong storms evolving. |
author |
Briggs, W M |
author_facet |
Briggs, W M |
author_sort |
Briggs, W M |
title |
Changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones |
title_short |
Changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones |
title_full |
Changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones |
title_fullStr |
Changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones |
title_sort |
changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
http://cds.cern.ch/record/1017326 |
geographic |
Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Indian Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
http://cds.cern.ch/record/1017326 physics/0702131 oai:cds.cern.ch:1017326 |
_version_ |
1766120983348903936 |