Mulit-year Predictability of Greenland Sea Spring Sea-ice Volume in a Coupled Climate Model
Prediction of sea-ice is not only important for shipping but also for weather as it can have a signicant climatic impact. Therefore sea-ice predictions are important for accurate inter-annual to decadal prediction of climate in coupled climate models. However, to our knowledge there has been little...
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ftceda:oai:cedadocs.ceda.ac.uk:807 2023-05-15T16:27:17+02:00 Mulit-year Predictability of Greenland Sea Spring Sea-ice Volume in a Coupled Climate Model Hermanson, Leon Sutton, Rowan Keeley, Sarah 2009-11-10 application/vnd.ms-powerpoint http://cedadocs.ceda.ac.uk/807/ http://cedadocs.ceda.ac.uk/807/1/poster-NCAS09-HermansonSuttonKeeley.ppt en eng http://cedadocs.ceda.ac.uk/807/1/poster-NCAS09-HermansonSuttonKeeley.ppt Hermanson, Leon and Sutton, Rowan and Keeley, Sarah (2009) Mulit-year Predictability of Greenland Sea Spring Sea-ice Volume in a Coupled Climate Model. In: NCAS Staff Meeting 2009, 10-11 November 2009, Barcelo Hotel, Oxford, UK. Meteorology and Climatology Conference or Workshop Item NonPeerReviewed 2009 ftceda 2020-05-20T10:38:51Z Prediction of sea-ice is not only important for shipping but also for weather as it can have a signicant climatic impact. Therefore sea-ice predictions are important for accurate inter-annual to decadal prediction of climate in coupled climate models. However, to our knowledge there has been little work on how predictable sea-ice is in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice model. We have studied the predictability of sea-ice in HadCM3 using case study ensemble experiments with external forcing from the late 20th century designed to emphasize the predictability in the climate system due to initial conditions. Here, we will concentrate on spring (maximum) ice-volume in a box in the Greenland Sea (30W to 10E, 68N to 80N). Model climatology from a control-run shows that this region has high inter-annual variability in sea-ice volume. We find that although ice may almost completely disappear from this area in late autumn, the same anomalies re-appear in the following spring for at least the first four years in three out of four case studies. The mechanism for this appears to be related to persistence of ocean heat content in the initial conditions and the state of the meridional overturning circulation and its associated heat transport. In this model, the atmosphere appears to less important than the ocean in determining the predictability of sea-ice volume in the Greenland Sea. Conference Object Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice CEDA document repository (Centre for Environmental Data Analysis) Greenland |
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CEDA document repository (Centre for Environmental Data Analysis) |
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language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology and Climatology |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology and Climatology Hermanson, Leon Sutton, Rowan Keeley, Sarah Mulit-year Predictability of Greenland Sea Spring Sea-ice Volume in a Coupled Climate Model |
topic_facet |
Meteorology and Climatology |
description |
Prediction of sea-ice is not only important for shipping but also for weather as it can have a signicant climatic impact. Therefore sea-ice predictions are important for accurate inter-annual to decadal prediction of climate in coupled climate models. However, to our knowledge there has been little work on how predictable sea-ice is in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice model. We have studied the predictability of sea-ice in HadCM3 using case study ensemble experiments with external forcing from the late 20th century designed to emphasize the predictability in the climate system due to initial conditions. Here, we will concentrate on spring (maximum) ice-volume in a box in the Greenland Sea (30W to 10E, 68N to 80N). Model climatology from a control-run shows that this region has high inter-annual variability in sea-ice volume. We find that although ice may almost completely disappear from this area in late autumn, the same anomalies re-appear in the following spring for at least the first four years in three out of four case studies. The mechanism for this appears to be related to persistence of ocean heat content in the initial conditions and the state of the meridional overturning circulation and its associated heat transport. In this model, the atmosphere appears to less important than the ocean in determining the predictability of sea-ice volume in the Greenland Sea. |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Hermanson, Leon Sutton, Rowan Keeley, Sarah |
author_facet |
Hermanson, Leon Sutton, Rowan Keeley, Sarah |
author_sort |
Hermanson, Leon |
title |
Mulit-year Predictability of Greenland Sea Spring Sea-ice Volume in a Coupled Climate Model |
title_short |
Mulit-year Predictability of Greenland Sea Spring Sea-ice Volume in a Coupled Climate Model |
title_full |
Mulit-year Predictability of Greenland Sea Spring Sea-ice Volume in a Coupled Climate Model |
title_fullStr |
Mulit-year Predictability of Greenland Sea Spring Sea-ice Volume in a Coupled Climate Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Mulit-year Predictability of Greenland Sea Spring Sea-ice Volume in a Coupled Climate Model |
title_sort |
mulit-year predictability of greenland sea spring sea-ice volume in a coupled climate model |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
http://cedadocs.ceda.ac.uk/807/ http://cedadocs.ceda.ac.uk/807/1/poster-NCAS09-HermansonSuttonKeeley.ppt |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://cedadocs.ceda.ac.uk/807/1/poster-NCAS09-HermansonSuttonKeeley.ppt Hermanson, Leon and Sutton, Rowan and Keeley, Sarah (2009) Mulit-year Predictability of Greenland Sea Spring Sea-ice Volume in a Coupled Climate Model. In: NCAS Staff Meeting 2009, 10-11 November 2009, Barcelo Hotel, Oxford, UK. |
_version_ |
1766016413501227008 |