Storylines of Sahel precipitation change: roles of the North Atlantic and Euro‐Mediterranean temperature.

• Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• Main Authors: Monerie, Paul‐Arthur, Biasutti, Michela, Mignot, Juliette, Mohino, Elsa, Pohl, Benjamin, Zappa, Giuseppe
• Other Authors: NCAS-Climate Cambridge, Department of Chemistry Cambridge, UK, University of Cambridge UK (CAM)-University of Cambridge UK (CAM), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University New York, Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Departamento de Fisica de la Tierra, Astronomía y Astrofísica Madrid, Universidad Complutense de Madrid = Complutense University of Madrid Madrid (UCM), Biogéosciences UMR 6282 (BGS), Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CNR Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), National Research Council of Italy, funding provided by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Competitiveness DISTROPIA (PID2021-125806NB-I00) project and by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR)., ANR-19-JPOC-0003,ROADMAP,The Role of ocean dynamics and Ocean-Atmosphere interactions in Driving cliMAte variations and future Projections of impact-relevant extreme events(2019), ANR-18-MPGA-0001,ARCHANGE,Changement climatique et Arctique et circulation océanique globale(2018)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2023
• Subjects: [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://u-bourgogne.hal.science/hal-04188242; https://u-bourgogne.hal.science/hal-04188242/document; https://u-bourgogne.hal.science/hal-04188242/file/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202023%20-%20Monerie.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038712

International audience Future changes in Sahel precipitation are uncertain because of large differences among projections from various models. In order to explore this uncertainty, we use a storyline approach which seeks to identify alternative plausible evolutions of Sahel precipitation and their driving factors. By analyzing projections from the CMIP6 climate models, we show that changes in North Atlantic and in Euro‐Mediterranean temperatures explain up to 60% of the central Sahel precipitation change uncertainty. We then construct several storylines of Sahel precipitation change based on future plausible changes in North Atlantic and Euro‐Mediterranean temperatures. In one storyline, an amplified warming of both the North Atlantic and the Euro‐Mediterranean areas promotes a northward shift of the West African monsoon, increasing precipitation over the central Sahel, while, in the opposite storyline, a moderate warming in both regions is associated with a small change in precipitation over the central Sahel and a decrease in precipitation over the western Sahel, at the end of the 21st century. These results indicate that Sahel precipitation uncertainty will not be substantially reduced unless the uncertainty in the future warming of the North Atlantic and the Euro‐Mediterranean areas is constrained.