Impacts of Arctic sea ice on cold season atmospheric variability and trends estimated from observations and a multi-model large ensemble
International audience To examine the atmospheric responses to Arctic sea-ice variability in the Northern Hemisphere cold season (October to following March), this study uses a coordinated set of large-ensemble experiments of nine atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced with observed d...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2021
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03608156 https://hal.science/hal-03608156/document https://hal.science/hal-03608156/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Impacts%20of%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20on%20Cold%20Season%20Atmospheric%20Variability%20and%20Trends%20Estimated%20from%20Observations%20and%20a%20Multimodel%20Large%20Ensemble.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1 |
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ftceafr:oai:HAL:hal-03608156v1 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) |
op_collection_id |
ftceafr |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic Sea ice Atmospheric circulation Climate models [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
spellingShingle |
Arctic Sea ice Atmospheric circulation Climate models [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] Liang, Yu-Chiao Frankignoul, Claude Kwon, Young‐Oh Gastineau, Guillaume Manzini, Elisa Danabasoglu, Gokhan Suo, Lingling Yeager, Stephen Gao, Yongqi Attema, Jisk Cherchi, Annalisa Ghosh, Rohit Matei, Daniela Mecking, Jennifer Tian, Tian Zhang, Ying Impacts of Arctic sea ice on cold season atmospheric variability and trends estimated from observations and a multi-model large ensemble |
topic_facet |
Arctic Sea ice Atmospheric circulation Climate models [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
description |
International audience To examine the atmospheric responses to Arctic sea-ice variability in the Northern Hemisphere cold season (October to following March), this study uses a coordinated set of large-ensemble experiments of nine atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced with observed daily-varying sea-ice, sea-surface temperature, and radiative forcings prescribed during the 1979-2014 period, together with a parallel set of experiments where Arctic sea ice is substituted by its climatology. The simulations of the former set reproduce the near-surface temperature trends in reanalysis data, with similar amplitude, and their multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) shows decreasing sea-level pressure over much of the polar cap and Eurasia in boreal autumn. The MMEM difference between the two experiments allows isolating the effects of Arctic sea-ice loss, which explain a large portion of the Arctic warming trends in the lower troposphere and drives a small but statistically significant weakening of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation. The observed interannual co-variability between sea-ice extent in the Barents-Kara Seas and lagged atmospheric circulation is distinguished from the effects of confounding factors based on multiple regression, and quantitatively compared to the co-variability in MMEMs. The interannual sea-ice decline followed by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like anomaly found in observations is also seen in the MMEM differences, with consistent spatial structure but much smaller amplitude. This result suggests that the sea-ice impacts on trends and interannual atmospheric variability simulated by AGCMs could be underestimated, but caution is needed because internal atmospheric variability may have affected the observed relationship. |
author2 |
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen (NERSC) Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR) Department of Biological Sciences Bergen (BIO / UiB) University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB) Nansen-Zhu International Research Center (NZC) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Beijing (IAP) Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (CAS)-Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (CAS) Netherlands eScience Center CNR Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC) National Research Council of Italy Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Bologna (INGV) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Department of Meteorology Reading University of Reading (UOR) National Oceanography Centre Southampton (NOC) University of Southampton Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (CAS) European Project: 727852,Blue-Action(2016) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Liang, Yu-Chiao Frankignoul, Claude Kwon, Young‐Oh Gastineau, Guillaume Manzini, Elisa Danabasoglu, Gokhan Suo, Lingling Yeager, Stephen Gao, Yongqi Attema, Jisk Cherchi, Annalisa Ghosh, Rohit Matei, Daniela Mecking, Jennifer Tian, Tian Zhang, Ying |
author_facet |
Liang, Yu-Chiao Frankignoul, Claude Kwon, Young‐Oh Gastineau, Guillaume Manzini, Elisa Danabasoglu, Gokhan Suo, Lingling Yeager, Stephen Gao, Yongqi Attema, Jisk Cherchi, Annalisa Ghosh, Rohit Matei, Daniela Mecking, Jennifer Tian, Tian Zhang, Ying |
author_sort |
Liang, Yu-Chiao |
title |
Impacts of Arctic sea ice on cold season atmospheric variability and trends estimated from observations and a multi-model large ensemble |
title_short |
Impacts of Arctic sea ice on cold season atmospheric variability and trends estimated from observations and a multi-model large ensemble |
title_full |
Impacts of Arctic sea ice on cold season atmospheric variability and trends estimated from observations and a multi-model large ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Impacts of Arctic sea ice on cold season atmospheric variability and trends estimated from observations and a multi-model large ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impacts of Arctic sea ice on cold season atmospheric variability and trends estimated from observations and a multi-model large ensemble |
title_sort |
impacts of arctic sea ice on cold season atmospheric variability and trends estimated from observations and a multi-model large ensemble |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03608156 https://hal.science/hal-03608156/document https://hal.science/hal-03608156/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Impacts%20of%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20on%20Cold%20Season%20Atmospheric%20Variability%20and%20Trends%20Estimated%20from%20Observations%20and%20a%20Multimodel%20Large%20Ensemble.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1 |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-03608156 Journal of Climate, 2021, 34 (20), pp.8419-8443. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//727852/EU/Blue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat/Blue-Action hal-03608156 https://hal.science/hal-03608156 https://hal.science/hal-03608156/document https://hal.science/hal-03608156/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Impacts%20of%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20on%20Cold%20Season%20Atmospheric%20Variability%20and%20Trends%20Estimated%20from%20Observations%20and%20a%20Multimodel%20Large%20Ensemble.pdf doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1 WOS: 000752637600020 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
64 |
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1810293609953492992 |
spelling |
ftceafr:oai:HAL:hal-03608156v1 2024-09-15T17:51:39+00:00 Impacts of Arctic sea ice on cold season atmospheric variability and trends estimated from observations and a multi-model large ensemble Liang, Yu-Chiao Frankignoul, Claude Kwon, Young‐Oh Gastineau, Guillaume Manzini, Elisa Danabasoglu, Gokhan Suo, Lingling Yeager, Stephen Gao, Yongqi Attema, Jisk Cherchi, Annalisa Ghosh, Rohit Matei, Daniela Mecking, Jennifer Tian, Tian Zhang, Ying Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen (NERSC) Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR) Department of Biological Sciences Bergen (BIO / UiB) University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB) Nansen-Zhu International Research Center (NZC) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Beijing (IAP) Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (CAS)-Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (CAS) Netherlands eScience Center CNR Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC) National Research Council of Italy Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Bologna (INGV) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Department of Meteorology Reading University of Reading (UOR) National Oceanography Centre Southampton (NOC) University of Southampton Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (CAS) European Project: 727852,Blue-Action(2016) 2021-08-12 https://hal.science/hal-03608156 https://hal.science/hal-03608156/document https://hal.science/hal-03608156/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Impacts%20of%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20on%20Cold%20Season%20Atmospheric%20Variability%20and%20Trends%20Estimated%20from%20Observations%20and%20a%20Multimodel%20Large%20Ensemble.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1 en eng HAL CCSD American Meteorological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//727852/EU/Blue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat/Blue-Action hal-03608156 https://hal.science/hal-03608156 https://hal.science/hal-03608156/document https://hal.science/hal-03608156/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Impacts%20of%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20on%20Cold%20Season%20Atmospheric%20Variability%20and%20Trends%20Estimated%20from%20Observations%20and%20a%20Multimodel%20Large%20Ensemble.pdf doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1 WOS: 000752637600020 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-03608156 Journal of Climate, 2021, 34 (20), pp.8419-8443. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1⟩ Arctic Sea ice Atmospheric circulation Climate models [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftceafr https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1 2024-07-29T23:36:00Z International audience To examine the atmospheric responses to Arctic sea-ice variability in the Northern Hemisphere cold season (October to following March), this study uses a coordinated set of large-ensemble experiments of nine atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced with observed daily-varying sea-ice, sea-surface temperature, and radiative forcings prescribed during the 1979-2014 period, together with a parallel set of experiments where Arctic sea ice is substituted by its climatology. The simulations of the former set reproduce the near-surface temperature trends in reanalysis data, with similar amplitude, and their multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) shows decreasing sea-level pressure over much of the polar cap and Eurasia in boreal autumn. The MMEM difference between the two experiments allows isolating the effects of Arctic sea-ice loss, which explain a large portion of the Arctic warming trends in the lower troposphere and drives a small but statistically significant weakening of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation. The observed interannual co-variability between sea-ice extent in the Barents-Kara Seas and lagged atmospheric circulation is distinguished from the effects of confounding factors based on multiple regression, and quantitatively compared to the co-variability in MMEMs. The interannual sea-ice decline followed by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like anomaly found in observations is also seen in the MMEM differences, with consistent spatial structure but much smaller amplitude. This result suggests that the sea-ice impacts on trends and interannual atmospheric variability simulated by AGCMs could be underestimated, but caution is needed because internal atmospheric variability may have affected the observed relationship. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) Journal of Climate 1 64 |