A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences
International audience Abstract. The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing th...
Published in: | Climate of the Past |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2021
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03331777 https://hal.science/hal-03331777/document https://hal.science/hal-03331777/file/cp-17-37-2021%282%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 |
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HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) |
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English |
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[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology Kageyama, Masa Sime, Louise Sicard, Marie Guarino, Maria-Vittoria de Vernal, Anne Stein, Ruediger Schroeder, David Malmierca-Vallet, Irene Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Bitz, Cecilia Braconnot, Pascale Brady, Esther Cao, Jian Chamberlain, Matthew Feltham, Danny Guo, Chuncheng Legrande, Allegra Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina Nisancioglu, Kerim Otto-Bliesner, Bette O'Ishi, Ryouta Ramos Buarque, Silvana Salas y Melia, David Sherriff-Tadano, Sam Stroeve, Julienne Shi, Xiaoxu Sun, Bo Tomas, Robert Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zheng, Weipeng Ziehn, Tilo A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
description |
International audience Abstract. The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The multi-model mean reduction in minimum sea ice area from the pre industrial period (PI) to the LIG reaches 50 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 3.20×106 km2, compared to 6.46×106 km2 for the PI). On the other hand, there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 15–16×106 km2 for both the PI and the LIG. To evaluate the model results we synthesise LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. The reconstructions for the northern North Atlantic show year-round ice-free conditions, and most models yield results in agreement with these reconstructions. Model–data disagreement appear for the sites in the Nordic Seas close to Greenland and at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost site with good chronology, for which a sea ice concentration larger than 75 % is reconstructed even in summer, discriminates those models which simulate too little sea ice. However, the remaining models appear to simulate too much sea ice over the two sites south of the northernmost one, for which the reconstructed sea ice cover is seasonal. Hence models either underestimate or overestimate sea ice cover for the LIG, and their bias does not appear to be related to their bias for the pre-industrial period. Drivers for the inter-model differences are different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, which are associated with differences ... |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Modélisation du climat (CLIM) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Département des sciences de la terre et de l'atmosphère Montréal (SCTA) Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM) Centre de recherche sur la dynamique du système Terre (GEOTOP) École Polytechnique de Montréal (EPM)-McGill University = Université McGill Montréal, Canada -Université de Montréal (UdeM)-Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)-Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR)-Concordia University Montreal -Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM) Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute Kashiwa-shi (AORI) The University of Tokyo (UTokyo) Department of Atmospheric Sciences Seattle University of Washington Seattle Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kageyama, Masa Sime, Louise Sicard, Marie Guarino, Maria-Vittoria de Vernal, Anne Stein, Ruediger Schroeder, David Malmierca-Vallet, Irene Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Bitz, Cecilia Braconnot, Pascale Brady, Esther Cao, Jian Chamberlain, Matthew Feltham, Danny Guo, Chuncheng Legrande, Allegra Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina Nisancioglu, Kerim Otto-Bliesner, Bette O'Ishi, Ryouta Ramos Buarque, Silvana Salas y Melia, David Sherriff-Tadano, Sam Stroeve, Julienne Shi, Xiaoxu Sun, Bo Tomas, Robert Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zheng, Weipeng Ziehn, Tilo |
author_facet |
Kageyama, Masa Sime, Louise Sicard, Marie Guarino, Maria-Vittoria de Vernal, Anne Stein, Ruediger Schroeder, David Malmierca-Vallet, Irene Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Bitz, Cecilia Braconnot, Pascale Brady, Esther Cao, Jian Chamberlain, Matthew Feltham, Danny Guo, Chuncheng Legrande, Allegra Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina Nisancioglu, Kerim Otto-Bliesner, Bette O'Ishi, Ryouta Ramos Buarque, Silvana Salas y Melia, David Sherriff-Tadano, Sam Stroeve, Julienne Shi, Xiaoxu Sun, Bo Tomas, Robert Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zheng, Weipeng Ziehn, Tilo |
author_sort |
Kageyama, Masa |
title |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_short |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_full |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_fullStr |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_full_unstemmed |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_sort |
multi-model cmip6-pmip4 study of arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03331777 https://hal.science/hal-03331777/document https://hal.science/hal-03331777/file/cp-17-37-2021%282%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Nordic Seas North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Nordic Seas North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 1814-9324 EISSN: 1814-9332 Climate of the Past https://hal.science/hal-03331777 Climate of the Past, 2021, 17 (1), pp.37-62. ⟨10.5194/cp-17-37-2021⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 hal-03331777 https://hal.science/hal-03331777 https://hal.science/hal-03331777/document https://hal.science/hal-03331777/file/cp-17-37-2021%282%29.pdf doi:10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
37 |
op_container_end_page |
62 |
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1801372341882585088 |
spelling |
ftceafr:oai:HAL:hal-03331777v1 2024-06-09T07:43:31+00:00 A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences Kageyama, Masa Sime, Louise Sicard, Marie Guarino, Maria-Vittoria de Vernal, Anne Stein, Ruediger Schroeder, David Malmierca-Vallet, Irene Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Bitz, Cecilia Braconnot, Pascale Brady, Esther Cao, Jian Chamberlain, Matthew Feltham, Danny Guo, Chuncheng Legrande, Allegra Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina Nisancioglu, Kerim Otto-Bliesner, Bette O'Ishi, Ryouta Ramos Buarque, Silvana Salas y Melia, David Sherriff-Tadano, Sam Stroeve, Julienne Shi, Xiaoxu Sun, Bo Tomas, Robert Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zheng, Weipeng Ziehn, Tilo Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Modélisation du climat (CLIM) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Département des sciences de la terre et de l'atmosphère Montréal (SCTA) Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM) Centre de recherche sur la dynamique du système Terre (GEOTOP) École Polytechnique de Montréal (EPM)-McGill University = Université McGill Montréal, Canada -Université de Montréal (UdeM)-Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)-Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR)-Concordia University Montreal -Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM) Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute Kashiwa-shi (AORI) The University of Tokyo (UTokyo) Department of Atmospheric Sciences Seattle University of Washington Seattle Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2021 https://hal.science/hal-03331777 https://hal.science/hal-03331777/document https://hal.science/hal-03331777/file/cp-17-37-2021%282%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union (EGU) info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 hal-03331777 https://hal.science/hal-03331777 https://hal.science/hal-03331777/document https://hal.science/hal-03331777/file/cp-17-37-2021%282%29.pdf doi:10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1814-9324 EISSN: 1814-9332 Climate of the Past https://hal.science/hal-03331777 Climate of the Past, 2021, 17 (1), pp.37-62. ⟨10.5194/cp-17-37-2021⟩ [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftceafr https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 2024-05-16T14:07:38Z International audience Abstract. The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The multi-model mean reduction in minimum sea ice area from the pre industrial period (PI) to the LIG reaches 50 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 3.20×106 km2, compared to 6.46×106 km2 for the PI). On the other hand, there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 15–16×106 km2 for both the PI and the LIG. To evaluate the model results we synthesise LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. The reconstructions for the northern North Atlantic show year-round ice-free conditions, and most models yield results in agreement with these reconstructions. Model–data disagreement appear for the sites in the Nordic Seas close to Greenland and at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost site with good chronology, for which a sea ice concentration larger than 75 % is reconstructed even in summer, discriminates those models which simulate too little sea ice. However, the remaining models appear to simulate too much sea ice over the two sites south of the northernmost one, for which the reconstructed sea ice cover is seasonal. Hence models either underestimate or overestimate sea ice cover for the LIG, and their bias does not appear to be related to their bias for the pre-industrial period. Drivers for the inter-model differences are different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, which are associated with differences ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Nordic Seas North Atlantic Sea ice HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Climate of the Past 17 1 37 62 |