A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences

• Published in: Climate of the Past
• Main Authors: Kageyama, Masa, Sime, Louise, Sicard, Marie, Guarino, Maria-Vittoria, de Vernal, Anne, Stein, Ruediger, Schroeder, David, Malmierca-Vallet, Irene, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Bitz, Cecilia, Braconnot, Pascale, Brady, Esther, Cao, Jian, Chamberlain, Matthew, Feltham, Danny, Guo, Chuncheng, Legrande, Allegra, Lohmann, Gerrit, Meissner, Katrin, Menviel, Laurie, Morozova, Polina, Nisancioglu, Kerim, Otto-Bliesner, Bette, O'Ishi, Ryouta, Ramos Buarque, Silvana, Salas y Melia, David, Sherriff-Tadano, Sam, Stroeve, Julienne, Shi, Xiaoxu, Sun, Bo, Tomas, Robert, Volodin, Evgeny, Yeung, Nicholas, Zhang, Qiong, Zhang, Zhongshi, Zheng, Weipeng, Ziehn, Tilo
• Other Authors: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Département des sciences de la terre et de l'atmosphère Montréal (SCTA), Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), Centre de recherche sur la dynamique du système Terre (GEOTOP), École Polytechnique de Montréal (EPM)-McGill University = Université McGill Montréal, Canada -Université de Montréal (UdeM)-Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)-Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR)-Concordia University Montreal -Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM), Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute Kashiwa-shi (AORI), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Department of Atmospheric Sciences Seattle, University of Washington Seattle, Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2021
• Subjects: [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology; [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Greenland; Nordic Seas; North Atlantic; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-03331777; https://hal.science/hal-03331777/document; https://hal.science/hal-03331777/file/cp-17-37-2021%282%29.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021

International audience Abstract. The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The multi-model mean reduction in minimum sea ice area from the pre industrial period (PI) to the LIG reaches 50 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 3.20×106 km2, compared to 6.46×106 km2 for the PI). On the other hand, there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 15–16×106 km2 for both the PI and the LIG. To evaluate the model results we synthesise LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. The reconstructions for the northern North Atlantic show year-round ice-free conditions, and most models yield results in agreement with these reconstructions. Model–data disagreement appear for the sites in the Nordic Seas close to Greenland and at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost site with good chronology, for which a sea ice concentration larger than 75 % is reconstructed even in summer, discriminates those models which simulate too little sea ice. However, the remaining models appear to simulate too much sea ice over the two sites south of the northernmost one, for which the reconstructed sea ice cover is seasonal. Hence models either underestimate or overestimate sea ice cover for the LIG, and their bias does not appear to be related to their bias for the pre-industrial period. Drivers for the inter-model differences are different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, which are associated with differences ...