Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

International audience The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf...

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Published in:Earth System Dynamics
Main Authors: Levermann, Anders, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Albrecht, Torsten, Goelzer, Heiko, Golledge, Nicholas R., Greve, Ralf, Huybrechts, P., Jordan, James R., Leguy, Gunter R., Martin, Daniel F., Morlighem, Mathieu, Pattyn, Frank, Pollard, David, Quiquet, Aurélien, Rodehacke, Christian B., Seroussi, Hélène, Sutter, Johannes, Zhang, Tong, van Breedam, Jonas, Calov, Reinhard, Deconto, Robert M., Dumas, Christophe, Garbe, Julius, Hilmar Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Kleiner, Thomas, Lipscomb, William H., Meinshausen, Malte, Ng, Esmond G., Nowicki, Sophie M.J., Perego, Mauro, Price, Stephen F., Saito, Fuyuki, Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne, Sun, Sainan, van de Wal, Roderick S.W.
Other Authors: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), 01LP1511B National Science Foundation, NSF: 1739031, 1852977 U.S. Department of Energy, USDOE: DE-AC02-05CH11231 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NASA National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR Office of Science, SC Biological and Environmental Research, BER National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, NERSC Natural Environment Research Council, NERC: NE/R000824/1 European Research Council, ERC: 610055, ICE2ICE Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG: LE1448/6-1, LE1448/7-1 Leibniz-Gemeinschaft Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, KAKEN: JP16H02224, JP17H06104, JP17H06323 Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, BMBF Ministerie van Onderwijs, Cultuur en Wetenschap, OCW: 024.002.001 Seventh Framework Programme, FP7 Netherlands Earth System Science Centre, NESSC, Ralf Greve was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) under KAKENHI grant nos. JP16H02224, JP17H06104, and JP17H06323., The material provided for the CISM model is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under cooperative agreement no. 1852977. Computing and data storage resources, including the Cheyenne supercomputer (https://www2.cisl.ucar.edu/resources/ computational-systems/cheyenne, last access: 6 January 2020), were provided by the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at NCAR., Torsten Albrecht was supported by the Deutsche Forschungs-gemeinschaft (DFG) in the framework of the priority programme “Antarctic Research with comparative investigations in Arctic ice areas” by grants LE1448/6-1 and LE1448/7-1. Julius Garbe acknowledges funding from the Leibniz Association (project DominoES)., Malte Meinshausen received funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF grant no. 1739031) through the PROPHET project, a component of the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC)., Christian Rodehacke has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013)/ERC grant agreement 610055 as part of the Ice2Ice project., Financial support. This research has been supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (grant no. DE-AC02-05CH11231), the European Research Council (ICE2ICE (grant no. 610055)), the Dutch Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (grant no. 024.002.001), the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (grant nos. JP16H02224, JP17H06104, and JP17H06323), the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) FONA (grant no. 01LP1511B), the German Research Foundation (grant nos. LE1448/6-1 and LE1448/7-1), and the National Science Foundation (grant no. 1852977)., A portion of this research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. He-lene Seroussi and Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel were supported by grants from the NASA Cryospheric Science, Sea Level Change Team, and Modeling Analysis and Prediction programmes., Jonas Van Breedam and Philippe Huybrechts acknowledge support from the iceMOD project funded by the Research Foundation – Flanders (FWO-Vlaanderen)., Heiko Goelzer has received funding from the programme of the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC), financially supported by the Dutch Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (OCW) under grant no. 024.002.001.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: HAL CCSD 2020
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hal.science/hal-03227889
https://hal.science/hal-03227889/document
https://hal.science/hal-03227889/file/esd-11-35-2020.pdf
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020
id ftceafr:oai:HAL:hal-03227889v1
record_format openpolar
institution Open Polar
collection HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives)
op_collection_id ftceafr
language English
topic [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean
Atmosphere
spellingShingle [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean
Atmosphere
Levermann, Anders
Winkelmann, Ricarda
Albrecht, Torsten
Goelzer, Heiko
Golledge, Nicholas R.
Greve, Ralf
Huybrechts, P.
Jordan, James R.
Leguy, Gunter R.
Martin, Daniel F.
Morlighem, Mathieu
Pattyn, Frank
Pollard, David
Quiquet, Aurélien
Rodehacke, Christian B.
Seroussi, Hélène
Sutter, Johannes
Zhang, Tong
van Breedam, Jonas
Calov, Reinhard
Deconto, Robert M.
Dumas, Christophe
Garbe, Julius
Hilmar Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar
Hoffman, Matthew J.
Humbert, Angelika
Kleiner, Thomas
Lipscomb, William H.
Meinshausen, Malte
Ng, Esmond G.
Nowicki, Sophie M.J.
Perego, Mauro
Price, Stephen F.
Saito, Fuyuki
Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne
Sun, Sainan
van de Wal, Roderick S.W.
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
topic_facet [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean
Atmosphere
description International audience The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ...
author2 Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE)
Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA))
Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)
Modélisation du climat (CLIM)
Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA))
01LP1511B National Science Foundation, NSF: 1739031, 1852977 U.S. Department of Energy, USDOE: DE-AC02-05CH11231 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NASA National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR Office of Science, SC Biological and Environmental Research, BER National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, NERSC Natural Environment Research Council, NERC: NE/R000824/1 European Research Council, ERC: 610055, ICE2ICE Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG: LE1448/6-1, LE1448/7-1 Leibniz-Gemeinschaft Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, KAKEN: JP16H02224, JP17H06104, JP17H06323 Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, BMBF Ministerie van Onderwijs, Cultuur en Wetenschap, OCW: 024.002.001 Seventh Framework Programme, FP7 Netherlands Earth System Science Centre, NESSC
Ralf Greve was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) under KAKENHI grant nos. JP16H02224, JP17H06104, and JP17H06323.
The material provided for the CISM model is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under cooperative agreement no. 1852977. Computing and data storage resources, including the Cheyenne supercomputer (https://www2.cisl.ucar.edu/resources/ computational-systems/cheyenne, last access: 6 January 2020), were provided by the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at NCAR.
Torsten Albrecht was supported by the Deutsche Forschungs-gemeinschaft (DFG) in the framework of the priority programme “Antarctic Research with comparative investigations in Arctic ice areas” by grants LE1448/6-1 and LE1448/7-1. Julius Garbe acknowledges funding from the Leibniz Association (project DominoES).
Malte Meinshausen received funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF grant no. 1739031) through the PROPHET project, a component of the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC).
Christian Rodehacke has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013)/ERC grant agreement 610055 as part of the Ice2Ice project.
Financial support. This research has been supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (grant no. DE-AC02-05CH11231), the European Research Council (ICE2ICE (grant no. 610055)), the Dutch Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (grant no. 024.002.001), the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (grant nos. JP16H02224, JP17H06104, and JP17H06323), the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) FONA (grant no. 01LP1511B), the German Research Foundation (grant nos. LE1448/6-1 and LE1448/7-1), and the National Science Foundation (grant no. 1852977).
A portion of this research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. He-lene Seroussi and Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel were supported by grants from the NASA Cryospheric Science, Sea Level Change Team, and Modeling Analysis and Prediction programmes.
Jonas Van Breedam and Philippe Huybrechts acknowledge support from the iceMOD project funded by the Research Foundation – Flanders (FWO-Vlaanderen).
Heiko Goelzer has received funding from the programme of the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC), financially supported by the Dutch Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (OCW) under grant no. 024.002.001.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Levermann, Anders
Winkelmann, Ricarda
Albrecht, Torsten
Goelzer, Heiko
Golledge, Nicholas R.
Greve, Ralf
Huybrechts, P.
Jordan, James R.
Leguy, Gunter R.
Martin, Daniel F.
Morlighem, Mathieu
Pattyn, Frank
Pollard, David
Quiquet, Aurélien
Rodehacke, Christian B.
Seroussi, Hélène
Sutter, Johannes
Zhang, Tong
van Breedam, Jonas
Calov, Reinhard
Deconto, Robert M.
Dumas, Christophe
Garbe, Julius
Hilmar Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar
Hoffman, Matthew J.
Humbert, Angelika
Kleiner, Thomas
Lipscomb, William H.
Meinshausen, Malte
Ng, Esmond G.
Nowicki, Sophie M.J.
Perego, Mauro
Price, Stephen F.
Saito, Fuyuki
Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne
Sun, Sainan
van de Wal, Roderick S.W.
author_facet Levermann, Anders
Winkelmann, Ricarda
Albrecht, Torsten
Goelzer, Heiko
Golledge, Nicholas R.
Greve, Ralf
Huybrechts, P.
Jordan, James R.
Leguy, Gunter R.
Martin, Daniel F.
Morlighem, Mathieu
Pattyn, Frank
Pollard, David
Quiquet, Aurélien
Rodehacke, Christian B.
Seroussi, Hélène
Sutter, Johannes
Zhang, Tong
van Breedam, Jonas
Calov, Reinhard
Deconto, Robert M.
Dumas, Christophe
Garbe, Julius
Hilmar Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar
Hoffman, Matthew J.
Humbert, Angelika
Kleiner, Thomas
Lipscomb, William H.
Meinshausen, Malte
Ng, Esmond G.
Nowicki, Sophie M.J.
Perego, Mauro
Price, Stephen F.
Saito, Fuyuki
Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne
Sun, Sainan
van de Wal, Roderick S.W.
author_sort Levermann, Anders
title Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
title_short Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
title_full Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
title_fullStr Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
title_full_unstemmed Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
title_sort projecting antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (larmip-2)
publisher HAL CCSD
publishDate 2020
url https://hal.science/hal-03227889
https://hal.science/hal-03227889/document
https://hal.science/hal-03227889/file/esd-11-35-2020.pdf
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020
genre Antarc*
Antarctic
Ice Sheet
Ice Shelf
Southern Ocean
genre_facet Antarc*
Antarctic
Ice Sheet
Ice Shelf
Southern Ocean
op_source ISSN: 2190-4979
EISSN: 2190-4987
Earth System Dynamics
https://hal.science/hal-03227889
Earth System Dynamics, 2020, 11 (1), pp.35-76. ⟨10.5194/esd-11-35-2020⟩
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spelling ftceafr:oai:HAL:hal-03227889v1 2024-04-28T07:56:15+00:00 Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2) Levermann, Anders Winkelmann, Ricarda Albrecht, Torsten Goelzer, Heiko Golledge, Nicholas R. Greve, Ralf Huybrechts, P. Jordan, James R. Leguy, Gunter R. Martin, Daniel F. Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pollard, David Quiquet, Aurélien Rodehacke, Christian B. Seroussi, Hélène Sutter, Johannes Zhang, Tong van Breedam, Jonas Calov, Reinhard Deconto, Robert M. Dumas, Christophe Garbe, Julius Hilmar Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Kleiner, Thomas Lipscomb, William H. Meinshausen, Malte Ng, Esmond G. Nowicki, Sophie M.J. Perego, Mauro Price, Stephen F. Saito, Fuyuki Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne Sun, Sainan van de Wal, Roderick S.W. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Modélisation du climat (CLIM) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) 01LP1511B National Science Foundation, NSF: 1739031, 1852977 U.S. Department of Energy, USDOE: DE-AC02-05CH11231 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NASA National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR Office of Science, SC Biological and Environmental Research, BER National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, NERSC Natural Environment Research Council, NERC: NE/R000824/1 European Research Council, ERC: 610055, ICE2ICE Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG: LE1448/6-1, LE1448/7-1 Leibniz-Gemeinschaft Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, KAKEN: JP16H02224, JP17H06104, JP17H06323 Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, BMBF Ministerie van Onderwijs, Cultuur en Wetenschap, OCW: 024.002.001 Seventh Framework Programme, FP7 Netherlands Earth System Science Centre, NESSC Ralf Greve was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) under KAKENHI grant nos. JP16H02224, JP17H06104, and JP17H06323. The material provided for the CISM model is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under cooperative agreement no. 1852977. Computing and data storage resources, including the Cheyenne supercomputer (https://www2.cisl.ucar.edu/resources/ computational-systems/cheyenne, last access: 6 January 2020), were provided by the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at NCAR. Torsten Albrecht was supported by the Deutsche Forschungs-gemeinschaft (DFG) in the framework of the priority programme “Antarctic Research with comparative investigations in Arctic ice areas” by grants LE1448/6-1 and LE1448/7-1. Julius Garbe acknowledges funding from the Leibniz Association (project DominoES). Malte Meinshausen received funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF grant no. 1739031) through the PROPHET project, a component of the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC). Christian Rodehacke has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013)/ERC grant agreement 610055 as part of the Ice2Ice project. Financial support. This research has been supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (grant no. DE-AC02-05CH11231), the European Research Council (ICE2ICE (grant no. 610055)), the Dutch Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (grant no. 024.002.001), the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (grant nos. JP16H02224, JP17H06104, and JP17H06323), the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) FONA (grant no. 01LP1511B), the German Research Foundation (grant nos. LE1448/6-1 and LE1448/7-1), and the National Science Foundation (grant no. 1852977). A portion of this research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. He-lene Seroussi and Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel were supported by grants from the NASA Cryospheric Science, Sea Level Change Team, and Modeling Analysis and Prediction programmes. Jonas Van Breedam and Philippe Huybrechts acknowledge support from the iceMOD project funded by the Research Foundation – Flanders (FWO-Vlaanderen). Heiko Goelzer has received funding from the programme of the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC), financially supported by the Dutch Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (OCW) under grant no. 024.002.001. 2020 https://hal.science/hal-03227889 https://hal.science/hal-03227889/document https://hal.science/hal-03227889/file/esd-11-35-2020.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020 hal-03227889 https://hal.science/hal-03227889 https://hal.science/hal-03227889/document https://hal.science/hal-03227889/file/esd-11-35-2020.pdf doi:10.5194/esd-11-35-2020 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2190-4979 EISSN: 2190-4987 Earth System Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-03227889 Earth System Dynamics, 2020, 11 (1), pp.35-76. ⟨10.5194/esd-11-35-2020⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftceafr https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020 2024-04-04T01:43:56Z International audience The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Southern Ocean HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) Earth System Dynamics 11 1 35 76