Extreme Cold Winter Temperatures in Europe under the Influence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Blocking
International audience Abstract North Atlantic atmospheric blocking conditions explain part of the winter climate variability in Europe, being associated with anomalous cold winter temperatures. In this study, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted to monthly minima of European w...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03203142 https://hal.science/hal-03203142/document https://hal.science/hal-03203142/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Extreme%20Cold%20Winter%20Temperatures%20in%20Europe%20under%20the%20Influence%20of%20North%20Atlantic%20Atmospheric%20Blocking.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1 |
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ftceafr:oai:HAL:hal-03203142v1 2024-09-15T18:22:25+00:00 Extreme Cold Winter Temperatures in Europe under the Influence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Blocking Sillmann, Jana Croci-Maspoli, Mischa Kallache, Malaak Katz, Richard Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) 2011-11-15 https://hal.science/hal-03203142 https://hal.science/hal-03203142/document https://hal.science/hal-03203142/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Extreme%20Cold%20Winter%20Temperatures%20in%20Europe%20under%20the%20Influence%20of%20North%20Atlantic%20Atmospheric%20Blocking.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1 en eng HAL CCSD American Meteorological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1 hal-03203142 https://hal.science/hal-03203142 https://hal.science/hal-03203142/document https://hal.science/hal-03203142/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Extreme%20Cold%20Winter%20Temperatures%20in%20Europe%20under%20the%20Influence%20of%20North%20Atlantic%20Atmospheric%20Blocking.pdf doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-03203142 Journal of Climate, 2011, 24 (22), pp.5899-5913. ⟨10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2011 ftceafr https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1 2024-07-22T13:15:42Z International audience Abstract North Atlantic atmospheric blocking conditions explain part of the winter climate variability in Europe, being associated with anomalous cold winter temperatures. In this study, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted to monthly minima of European winter 6-hourly minimum temperatures from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate model simulations and the ECMWF reanalysis product known as ERA-40, with an indicator for atmospheric blocking conditions being used as covariate. It is demonstrated that relating the location and scale parameter of the GEV distribution to atmospheric blocking improves the fit to extreme minimum temperatures in large areas of Europe. The climate model simulations agree reasonably with ERA-40 in the present climate (1961–2000). Under the influence of atmospheric blocking, a decrease in the 0.95th quantiles of extreme minimum temperatures can be distinguished. This cooling effect of atmospheric blocking is, however, diminished in future climate simulations because of a shift in blocking location, and thus reduces the chances of very cold winters in northeastern parts of Europe. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) Journal of Climate 24 22 5899 5913 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) |
op_collection_id |
ftceafr |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment Sillmann, Jana Croci-Maspoli, Mischa Kallache, Malaak Katz, Richard Extreme Cold Winter Temperatures in Europe under the Influence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Blocking |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
description |
International audience Abstract North Atlantic atmospheric blocking conditions explain part of the winter climate variability in Europe, being associated with anomalous cold winter temperatures. In this study, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted to monthly minima of European winter 6-hourly minimum temperatures from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate model simulations and the ECMWF reanalysis product known as ERA-40, with an indicator for atmospheric blocking conditions being used as covariate. It is demonstrated that relating the location and scale parameter of the GEV distribution to atmospheric blocking improves the fit to extreme minimum temperatures in large areas of Europe. The climate model simulations agree reasonably with ERA-40 in the present climate (1961–2000). Under the influence of atmospheric blocking, a decrease in the 0.95th quantiles of extreme minimum temperatures can be distinguished. This cooling effect of atmospheric blocking is, however, diminished in future climate simulations because of a shift in blocking location, and thus reduces the chances of very cold winters in northeastern parts of Europe. |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sillmann, Jana Croci-Maspoli, Mischa Kallache, Malaak Katz, Richard |
author_facet |
Sillmann, Jana Croci-Maspoli, Mischa Kallache, Malaak Katz, Richard |
author_sort |
Sillmann, Jana |
title |
Extreme Cold Winter Temperatures in Europe under the Influence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Blocking |
title_short |
Extreme Cold Winter Temperatures in Europe under the Influence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Blocking |
title_full |
Extreme Cold Winter Temperatures in Europe under the Influence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Blocking |
title_fullStr |
Extreme Cold Winter Temperatures in Europe under the Influence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Blocking |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extreme Cold Winter Temperatures in Europe under the Influence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Blocking |
title_sort |
extreme cold winter temperatures in europe under the influence of north atlantic atmospheric blocking |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03203142 https://hal.science/hal-03203142/document https://hal.science/hal-03203142/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Extreme%20Cold%20Winter%20Temperatures%20in%20Europe%20under%20the%20Influence%20of%20North%20Atlantic%20Atmospheric%20Blocking.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-03203142 Journal of Climate, 2011, 24 (22), pp.5899-5913. ⟨10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1 hal-03203142 https://hal.science/hal-03203142 https://hal.science/hal-03203142/document https://hal.science/hal-03203142/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Extreme%20Cold%20Winter%20Temperatures%20in%20Europe%20under%20the%20Influence%20of%20North%20Atlantic%20Atmospheric%20Blocking.pdf doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
24 |
container_issue |
22 |
container_start_page |
5899 |
op_container_end_page |
5913 |
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1810462196533035008 |