Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study
International audience We investigate the issue of "dangerous humanmade interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the "alternative" scenari...
Published in: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
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Language: | English |
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03190684 https://hal.science/hal-03190684/document https://hal.science/hal-03190684/file/acp-7-2287-2007.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-2287-2007 |
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ftceafr:oai:HAL:hal-03190684v1 2024-09-15T18:02:27+00:00 Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study del Genio, A. Perlwitz, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Hansen, J. Sato, M. Ruedy, R. Kharecha, P. Lacis, A. Miller, R. Nazarenko, L. Lo, K. Schmidt, G., A Russell, G. Aleinov, I. Bauer, S. Baum, E. Cairns, B. Canuto, V. Chandler, M. Cheng, Y. Cohen, A. Genio, A, Del Faluvegi, G. Fleming, E. Friend, A. Hall, T. Jackman, C. Jonas, J. Kelley, M. Kiang, N., y Koch, D. Labow, G. Lerner, J. Menon, S. Novakov, T. Oinas, V. Perlwitz, Ja Perlwitz, Ju Rind, D. Romanou, A. Schmunk, R. Shindell, D. Stone, P. Sun, S. Streets, D. Tausnev, N. Thresher, D. Unger, N. Yao, M. Zhang, S. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) 2007-05-07 https://hal.science/hal-03190684 https://hal.science/hal-03190684/document https://hal.science/hal-03190684/file/acp-7-2287-2007.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-2287-2007 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/acp-7-2287-2007 hal-03190684 https://hal.science/hal-03190684 https://hal.science/hal-03190684/document https://hal.science/hal-03190684/file/acp-7-2287-2007.pdf doi:10.5194/acp-7-2287-2007 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1680-7316 EISSN: 1680-7324 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics https://hal.science/hal-03190684 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2007, 7 (9), pp.2287-2312. ⟨10.5194/acp-7-2287-2007⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2007 ftceafr https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-2287-2007 2024-07-22T13:15:53Z International audience We investigate the issue of "dangerous humanmade interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the "alternative" scenario of Hansen and Sato (2004). Identification of "dangerous" effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1 • C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing ∼1.5 W/m 2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1 • C if climate sensitivity is ∼3 • C or less for doubled CO 2. The alternative scenario keeps mean regional seasonal warming within 2σ (standard deviations) of 20th century variability, but other scenarios yield regional changes of 5-10σ , i.e. mean conditions outside the range of local experience. We conclude that a CO 2 level exceeding about 450 ppm is "dangerous", but reduction of non-CO 2 forcings can provide modest relief on the CO 2 constraint. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change Article in Journal/Newspaper Climate change Global warming HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 7 9 2287 2312 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) |
op_collection_id |
ftceafr |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment del Genio, A. Perlwitz, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Hansen, J. Sato, M. Ruedy, R. Kharecha, P. Lacis, A. Miller, R. Nazarenko, L. Lo, K. Schmidt, G., A Russell, G. Aleinov, I. Bauer, S. Baum, E. Cairns, B. Canuto, V. Chandler, M. Cheng, Y. Cohen, A. Genio, A, Del Faluvegi, G. Fleming, E. Friend, A. Hall, T. Jackman, C. Jonas, J. Kelley, M. Kiang, N., y Koch, D. Labow, G. Lerner, J. Menon, S. Novakov, T. Oinas, V. Perlwitz, Ja Perlwitz, Ju Rind, D. Romanou, A. Schmunk, R. Shindell, D. Stone, P. Sun, S. Streets, D. Tausnev, N. Thresher, D. Unger, N. Yao, M. Zhang, S. Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
description |
International audience We investigate the issue of "dangerous humanmade interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the "alternative" scenario of Hansen and Sato (2004). Identification of "dangerous" effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1 • C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing ∼1.5 W/m 2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1 • C if climate sensitivity is ∼3 • C or less for doubled CO 2. The alternative scenario keeps mean regional seasonal warming within 2σ (standard deviations) of 20th century variability, but other scenarios yield regional changes of 5-10σ , i.e. mean conditions outside the range of local experience. We conclude that a CO 2 level exceeding about 450 ppm is "dangerous", but reduction of non-CO 2 forcings can provide modest relief on the CO 2 constraint. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
del Genio, A. Perlwitz, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Hansen, J. Sato, M. Ruedy, R. Kharecha, P. Lacis, A. Miller, R. Nazarenko, L. Lo, K. Schmidt, G., A Russell, G. Aleinov, I. Bauer, S. Baum, E. Cairns, B. Canuto, V. Chandler, M. Cheng, Y. Cohen, A. Genio, A, Del Faluvegi, G. Fleming, E. Friend, A. Hall, T. Jackman, C. Jonas, J. Kelley, M. Kiang, N., y Koch, D. Labow, G. Lerner, J. Menon, S. Novakov, T. Oinas, V. Perlwitz, Ja Perlwitz, Ju Rind, D. Romanou, A. Schmunk, R. Shindell, D. Stone, P. Sun, S. Streets, D. Tausnev, N. Thresher, D. Unger, N. Yao, M. Zhang, S. |
author_facet |
del Genio, A. Perlwitz, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Hansen, J. Sato, M. Ruedy, R. Kharecha, P. Lacis, A. Miller, R. Nazarenko, L. Lo, K. Schmidt, G., A Russell, G. Aleinov, I. Bauer, S. Baum, E. Cairns, B. Canuto, V. Chandler, M. Cheng, Y. Cohen, A. Genio, A, Del Faluvegi, G. Fleming, E. Friend, A. Hall, T. Jackman, C. Jonas, J. Kelley, M. Kiang, N., y Koch, D. Labow, G. Lerner, J. Menon, S. Novakov, T. Oinas, V. Perlwitz, Ja Perlwitz, Ju Rind, D. Romanou, A. Schmunk, R. Shindell, D. Stone, P. Sun, S. Streets, D. Tausnev, N. Thresher, D. Unger, N. Yao, M. Zhang, S. |
author_sort |
del Genio, A. |
title |
Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study |
title_short |
Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study |
title_full |
Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study |
title_fullStr |
Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study |
title_sort |
dangerous human-made interference with climate: a giss modele study |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03190684 https://hal.science/hal-03190684/document https://hal.science/hal-03190684/file/acp-7-2287-2007.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-2287-2007 |
genre |
Climate change Global warming |
genre_facet |
Climate change Global warming |
op_source |
ISSN: 1680-7316 EISSN: 1680-7324 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics https://hal.science/hal-03190684 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2007, 7 (9), pp.2287-2312. ⟨10.5194/acp-7-2287-2007⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/acp-7-2287-2007 hal-03190684 https://hal.science/hal-03190684 https://hal.science/hal-03190684/document https://hal.science/hal-03190684/file/acp-7-2287-2007.pdf doi:10.5194/acp-7-2287-2007 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-2287-2007 |
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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
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7 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
2287 |
op_container_end_page |
2312 |
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1810439913431105536 |