The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century
International audience The Antarctic ice sheet's contribution to global sea level rise over the 21st century is of primary societal importance and remains largely uncertain as of yet. In particular, in the recent literature, the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet by 2100 can be negative (s...
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03183880 https://hal.science/hal-03183880/document https://hal.science/hal-03183880/file/tc-15-1031-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021 |
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ftceafr:oai:HAL:hal-03183880v1 2024-06-09T07:40:32+00:00 The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century Quiquet, Aurélien Dumas, Christophe Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Modélisation du climat (CLIM) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) 2021-02-26 https://hal.science/hal-03183880 https://hal.science/hal-03183880/document https://hal.science/hal-03183880/file/tc-15-1031-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021 hal-03183880 https://hal.science/hal-03183880 https://hal.science/hal-03183880/document https://hal.science/hal-03183880/file/tc-15-1031-2021.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.science/hal-03183880 The Cryosphere, 2021, 15, pp.1031 - 1052. ⟨10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftceafr https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021 2024-05-16T14:30:04Z International audience The Antarctic ice sheet's contribution to global sea level rise over the 21st century is of primary societal importance and remains largely uncertain as of yet. In particular, in the recent literature, the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet by 2100 can be negative (sea level fall) by a few centimetres or positive (sea level rise), with some estimates above 1 m. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-phase 6 (IS-MIP6) aimed at reducing the uncertainties in the fate of the ice sheets in the future by gathering various ice sheet models in a common framework. Here, we present the GRISLI-LSCE (Grenoble Ice Sheet and Land Ice model of the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica. We show that our model is strongly sensitive to the climate forcing used, with a contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level rise by 2100 that ranges from −50 to +150 mm sea level equivalent (SLE). Future oceanic warming leads to a decrease in thickness of the ice shelves, resulting in grounding-line retreat, while increased surface mass balance partially mitigates or even overcompensates the dynamic ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise. Most of the ice sheet changes over the next century are dampened under low-greenhousegas-emission scenarios. Uncertainties related to sub-ice-shelf melt rates induce large differences in simulated groundingline retreat, confirming the importance of this process and its representation in ice sheet models for projections of the Antarctic ice sheet's evolution. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) Antarctic The Antarctic The Cryosphere 15 2 1031 1052 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) |
op_collection_id |
ftceafr |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment Quiquet, Aurélien Dumas, Christophe The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
description |
International audience The Antarctic ice sheet's contribution to global sea level rise over the 21st century is of primary societal importance and remains largely uncertain as of yet. In particular, in the recent literature, the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet by 2100 can be negative (sea level fall) by a few centimetres or positive (sea level rise), with some estimates above 1 m. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-phase 6 (IS-MIP6) aimed at reducing the uncertainties in the fate of the ice sheets in the future by gathering various ice sheet models in a common framework. Here, we present the GRISLI-LSCE (Grenoble Ice Sheet and Land Ice model of the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica. We show that our model is strongly sensitive to the climate forcing used, with a contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level rise by 2100 that ranges from −50 to +150 mm sea level equivalent (SLE). Future oceanic warming leads to a decrease in thickness of the ice shelves, resulting in grounding-line retreat, while increased surface mass balance partially mitigates or even overcompensates the dynamic ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise. Most of the ice sheet changes over the next century are dampened under low-greenhousegas-emission scenarios. Uncertainties related to sub-ice-shelf melt rates induce large differences in simulated groundingline retreat, confirming the importance of this process and its representation in ice sheet models for projections of the Antarctic ice sheet's evolution. |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Modélisation du climat (CLIM) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Quiquet, Aurélien Dumas, Christophe |
author_facet |
Quiquet, Aurélien Dumas, Christophe |
author_sort |
Quiquet, Aurélien |
title |
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
title_short |
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
title_full |
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
title_sort |
grisli-lsce contribution to the ice sheet model intercomparison project for phase 6 of the coupled model intercomparison project (ismip6) – part 2: projections of the antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03183880 https://hal.science/hal-03183880/document https://hal.science/hal-03183880/file/tc-15-1031-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.science/hal-03183880 The Cryosphere, 2021, 15, pp.1031 - 1052. ⟨10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021 hal-03183880 https://hal.science/hal-03183880 https://hal.science/hal-03183880/document https://hal.science/hal-03183880/file/tc-15-1031-2021.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
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15 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
1031 |
op_container_end_page |
1052 |
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1801383915334664192 |