Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6
International audience Due to its wide‐ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic remains a key goal of climate science. Here, we compare the representation of observed subpolar SST variations since 1960 in initialized and uninitial...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2021
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381/file/2020GL091307.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091307 |
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ftceafr:oai:HAL:hal-03167381v1 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) |
op_collection_id |
ftceafr |
language |
English |
topic |
climate prediction CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic subpolar gyre [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
climate prediction CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic subpolar gyre [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography Borchert, Leonard F. Menary, Matthew, B Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, Giovanni Hermanson, Leon Mignot, Juliette Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
topic_facet |
climate prediction CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic subpolar gyre [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
description |
International audience Due to its wide‐ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic remains a key goal of climate science. Here, we compare the representation of observed subpolar SST variations since 1960 in initialized and uninitialized historical simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6). Initialized decadal hindcasts from CMIP6 explain 88% of observed SST variance post‐1980 in the subpolar gyre at lead years 5–7 (77% in uninitialized simulations) compared to 42% (8%) in CMIP5, indicating a more prominent role for forcing in driving observed subpolar SST changes than previously thought. Analysis of single‐forcing experiments suggests much of this correlation is due to natural forcing, explaining ∼55% of the observed variance. The amplitude of observed subpolar SST variations is underestimated in historical simulations and improved by initialization in CMIP6, indicating continued value of initialization for predicting North Atlantic SST. |
author2 |
Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter ANR-17-EQPX-0001,Plan d'évolution des moyens de stockage,Plan d'évolution des moyens de stockage(2017) European Project: 776613,Fighting and adapting to climate change,H2020-EU.3.5.1,EUCP(2017) European Project: 789445,https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/789445/reporting,EPICE(2018) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Borchert, Leonard F. Menary, Matthew, B Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, Giovanni Hermanson, Leon Mignot, Juliette |
author_facet |
Borchert, Leonard F. Menary, Matthew, B Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, Giovanni Hermanson, Leon Mignot, Juliette |
author_sort |
Borchert, Leonard F. |
title |
Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
title_short |
Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
title_full |
Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
title_fullStr |
Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
title_sort |
improved decadal predictions of north atlantic subpolar gyre sst in cmip6 |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381/file/2020GL091307.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091307 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381 Geophysical Research Letters, 2021, 48 (3), pp.e2020GL091307. ⟨10.1029/2020gl091307⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2020gl091307 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//776613/EU/European Climate Prediction system/EUCP info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/https//789445/EU/Emergent Properties to Improve Climate projections over Europe/EPICE hal-03167381 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381/file/2020GL091307.pdf doi:10.1029/2020gl091307 IRD: fdi:010080998 WOS: 000620058900008 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091307 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
48 |
container_issue |
3 |
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1799484381434216448 |
spelling |
ftceafr:oai:HAL:hal-03167381v1 2024-05-19T07:44:34+00:00 Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 Borchert, Leonard F. Menary, Matthew, B Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, Giovanni Hermanson, Leon Mignot, Juliette Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter ANR-17-EQPX-0001,Plan d'évolution des moyens de stockage,Plan d'évolution des moyens de stockage(2017) European Project: 776613,Fighting and adapting to climate change,H2020-EU.3.5.1,EUCP(2017) European Project: 789445,https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/789445/reporting,EPICE(2018) 2021-01-28 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381/file/2020GL091307.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091307 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2020gl091307 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//776613/EU/European Climate Prediction system/EUCP info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/https//789445/EU/Emergent Properties to Improve Climate projections over Europe/EPICE hal-03167381 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381/file/2020GL091307.pdf doi:10.1029/2020gl091307 IRD: fdi:010080998 WOS: 000620058900008 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03167381 Geophysical Research Letters, 2021, 48 (3), pp.e2020GL091307. ⟨10.1029/2020gl091307⟩ climate prediction CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic subpolar gyre [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftceafr https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091307 2024-04-25T01:45:58Z International audience Due to its wide‐ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic remains a key goal of climate science. Here, we compare the representation of observed subpolar SST variations since 1960 in initialized and uninitialized historical simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6). Initialized decadal hindcasts from CMIP6 explain 88% of observed SST variance post‐1980 in the subpolar gyre at lead years 5–7 (77% in uninitialized simulations) compared to 42% (8%) in CMIP5, indicating a more prominent role for forcing in driving observed subpolar SST changes than previously thought. Analysis of single‐forcing experiments suggests much of this correlation is due to natural forcing, explaining ∼55% of the observed variance. The amplitude of observed subpolar SST variations is underestimated in historical simulations and improved by initialization in CMIP6, indicating continued value of initialization for predicting North Atlantic SST. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic HAL-CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) Geophysical Research Letters 48 3 |